The treble on the favourites in the three Group races at Glorious Goodwood on Friday pays about +650 with BetOnline. The bet includes two odds-on bankers and a horse that looks vulnerable in races that have excellent recent records for favourite backers. Communique is the weak link.
Battaash, Khaloosy and Communique can be the punters’ friends, but one horse often gets the bookies out of jail. Communique is the horse to oppose, and a double on Battaash and Khaloosy pays almost +175. Outright favourites won seven of the 13 Group races at the 2019 meeting.
Over the last 10 years there have been 13 winning outright or joint favourites (43.33%) in the Group 2 King George Stakes (Battaash), Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes (Khaloosy) and Group 3 Glorious Stakes (Communique). The return from backing the 30 outright favourites blindly is 93%.
Some 25 winners in those races came from the top three in the betting, while three of the successful favourites were returned at odds-on. Communique is not a rock-solid favourite unlike Battaash and Khaloosy, who can enhance the record of top elects sent off at less than even money.
The nap of the day, and perhaps even the meeting, is Battaash in a race the horse has won in the last three years. Goodwood suits his running style and there have been those three wins from three starts at the track. On form and ratings, Battaash should be the banker in any multiple bets.
Battaash won three major sprints at Group level last season and was a comfortable winner at Royal Ascot in June. As a multiple course and distance winner, the horse looks very hard to beat at -275.03.
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Liberty Beach was placed behind Battaash at Royal Ascot, but there is evidence to suggest the horse can reverse the form. He was over two lengths adrift in third place but has a three-pound pull at Goodwood. However, Battaash was better value for the Ascot win and so can land the odds.
Khaloosy is another odds-on favourite who can justify the price. There are some variances in the market and the -110 available at some online bookmakers won’t last long. On ratings Khaloosy has six pounds in hand over the rest of the field, so there is some scope for a below-par effort.
The horse produced a career-best rating when winning the Britannia Stakes by four-and-a-half lengths at Royal Ascot. Khaloosy was an impressive winner of the heritage handicap and fully warrants odds-on favouritism for the Group 3 race at Goodwood.
Mystery Power has the experience and form to chase home the winner, while Tilsit could take advantage if the favourite underperforms. However, the latter horse is more about potential than form on the track, and even significant improvement should not be enough to trouble Khaloosy.
Communique is the third runner in the Group favourites treble at Goodwood and could let the bet down. The Mark Johnston horse has the highest Official Rating in the race, but Alounak and Desert Encounter are both only one pound inferior on the figures.
The favourite won two Group 2 races at Newmarket in 2019 but has not won in four starts this season. In a key form guideline, Communique finished ahead of Desert Encounter and Alnouk over one mile and four furlongs at Newmarket in July.
However, Desert Encounter won the Goodwood race last season and so is a course and distance winner. Alnouk was a very good second in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot. Hence, Communique has very little margin for error and could come up short.