The Cheltenham Festival just survived, but it is -454.55 on the Betfair Exchange that horse racing won't take place at Aintree on April 2 – the first day of the Grand National meeting.
It looks a safe bet that the most famous steeplechase in the world will not be run on its scheduled date because of the coronavirus pandemic. It will almost certainly delay Tiger Roll's attempt to make sporting history. However, after his Cheltenham run, the winner in 2018 and 2019 years is +800 with Bovada to become the first horse to win three Nationals in three years.
The coronavirus dynamic changes daily, even hourly. The current state of play in the UK according to the Sunday newspapers is that last Saturday saw the biggest daily increase in cases. A widespread epidemic is now inevitable. Mass gatherings could be banned from next weekend, which rules out spectators attending race meetings.
The Grand National is easily the biggest betting race of the year. It is a protected sporting event, which means it has to be shown on free-to-view television. It should happen later in the year and could be the feature of a one-day meeting at Aintree, possibly during May. It could even be staged behind closed doors on the planned date, but that has implications for the starting price (SP) process which is linked to on-course betting.
The 10pm BBC bulletin in the UK is one of the most-watched news broadcasts. On Saturday night, the only item was the virus. There was no mention of tensions on the border between Greece and Turkey, nor any gossip about Harry and Meghan. You can't get a toilet roll for love nor money and there is now no Premier League football. Horse racing in Scotland will be staged behind closed doors and while in England it is business as usual for the time being, that situation will probably change in the next week.
Online bookmakers now face the dilemma of how to handle Grand National ante-post bets. They haven't introduced the rule of non-runner/no bet, but some horses could be withdrawn because of the delay. As it stands, any bets placed on horses that are taken out of the National before race day are settled as non-runners, which means lost stakes. However, it makes sense as a PR exercise to announce that stakes will be returned if the National is delayed and is run at a later date. If there is no race in 2020, bookmakers must surely refund any ante-post bets.
Tiger Roll finished second in the cross country race at the Cheltenham Festival last week. The horse was not suited to the soft ground and connections are hinting that he won't run in the National in similar underfoot conditions. However, a May or later date makes good ground more likely, so Tiger Roll's chances of participation increase if the race is put back by four weeks or more. Every cloud has a silver lining.
However, the fly in the ointment could be Definitly Red. He is currently a best price of +1600 with Bovada to win the Grand National after being on offer at +3300 one month ago. The horse has been trained for an early-April National, so any delay is a factor. However, if the authorities announce a new date for the race, Definitly Red's trainer can adjust his preparation accordingly and win the 2020 Grand National.