Five horses have won three Champion Hurdle, all in consecutive years. If Buveur D'Air wins the race in 2020, he will join that elite group. However, the horse will be the first three-time winner to regain the title. He won the Champion Hurdle in 2017 and 2018 but fell in the race in March of this year.
Buveur D'Air is paying -300.03 with online bookmakers to win the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle on Saturday, but genuine opposition is thin on the ground. The final field will have less than eight runners, so there is no each-way betting on the first three.
It is another example of a Grade 1 jumps race attracting a small field. A study in the Racing Post revealed that, on average, more Irish horses contest Grade 1 races at home than British-trained horses in the UK. The conclusion was that Irish horses are more battle-hardened when it comes to the championship races at the Cheltenham Festival in March.
Over the last five festivals the score is 78 winners to Ireland, 61 to the UK and one to France. There are more races at the highest level in Ireland before the festival and they are more competitive in terms of runners. This is particularly prevalent in the novices' hurdle division. Over six years, Irish horses have won 13 of the 18 races for inexperienced hurdlers at the festival.
The lack of runners in the major British pre-Cheltenham jumps races is having a negative effect on Britain's performance at the meeting that matters most. The Fighting Fifth Hurdle is a race that illustrates the point.
Only seven runners have held their ground, but we are five days ahead of the race. Buveur D'Air is scheduled to make the trip to the north-east, but only Silver Streak has the form and ratings to give the horse a race. If Silver Streak is withdrawn before Saturday, Buveur D'Air could be as short as -500 to beat a handful of runners. There could be as few as four horses in the race, which means bookmakers will offer only win betting. Wagering turnover and Cheltenham prospects are affected detrimentally by small fields in Grade 1 National Hunt races in Britain.
Buveur D'Air faces a penalty kick and an open goal if Silver Streak does not run at Newcastle. The 2017 and 2018 champion will have stones in hand over most of the opposition. Lady Buttons has the official rating to get involved but on past results cannot beat Buveur D'Air. Form is not an exact science, but the favourite should win with ease. It is frustrating for all concerned that Buveur D'Air will not be asked a harder question as he embarks on a season that could culminate with a third Champion Hurdle, two seasons after the second win was secured.
Klassical Dream has been prominent in the betting for the 2020 Champion Hurdle since winning the Supreme Novice's Hurdle at this year's festival. The horse was the leading novice hurdler over two miles last season but ran moderately at Punchestown earlier this month. Saldier was the horse to take out of that race and is now the second favourite for the Champion Hurdle in most lists. Pentland Hills can be backed at +1000, but horses aged five have a poor record in the race.
Despite facing a small field at Newcastle this weekend, Buveur D'Air is tipped to complete the unique Champion Hurdle treble.