Nicky Henderson trains the current favourite for this year's Champion Hurdle and Champion Chase and the second favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. While he might not have the numbers to be the leading trainer at the big meeting next week, the jumps trainer is in great shape to win most money.
The trainers' championship over the core season is based on prize money, but the trainer that delivers the most winners takes out the equivalent title at the Cheltenham Festival. Henderson can be backed at +400 with Bovada to top the pops at this year's Festival, and only Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott are a shorter price. Epatante (Champion Hurdle) and Altior (Champion Chase) will probably have to win their races for Henderson to produce the most winners at Cheltenham from next Tuesday to Friday.
The son of Johnny Henderson has won the season-long trainers' championship five times: 1985/86, 1986/87 and then three times over the last seven years. It is testimony to his consistency and longevity that there is a 32-year span from the first to last title. Henderson has been the leading trainer at the Cheltenham Festival twice this century, in 2000 and 2012, when he had four and seven winners respectively. He has trained 64 winners at the Festival in total and only Mullins has a bigger tally.
Henderson excels in the races that matter most. Here is his record in the four most prestigious races at the Festival:
Champion Hurdle – seven wins (1985, 1986, 1987, 2009, 2010, 2017 and 2018)
Champion Chase – six wins (1992, 2012, 2013, 2016, 2018 and 2019)
Stayers' Hurdle – two wins (1989 and 2000)
Gold Cup – two wins (2011 and 2013)
The Stayers' Hurdle, where he has not had a winner in two decades, is the only one of the four feature races for which Henderson does not train the first or second favourite at this year's Festival. In addition to his market leaders, Epatante and Altior, Henderson sends Santini to the Gold Cup as the second favourite at +350. That horse has been backed in this week and could go off as the favourite for the race, especially if the ground is soft.
Henderson's stable jockey is Nico de Boinville, who is slated to ride Epatante, Altior and Santini. He rarely picks up outside rides and so may not have the book to be the top jockey. De Boinville can be backed at +800 to ride the most winners at the Festival, which puts him behind Paul Townend, Davy Russell, Barry Geraghty and Rachael Blackmore in the latest betting.
Altior, which has won the Champion Chase at the last two Festivals, is the best chance of a winner for the Henderson/de Boinville combination. The horse lost a long unbeaten run when finishing a tired second behind Cyrname at Ascot in November. In Defi Du Seuil and Chacun Poor Soi, Altior faces much stronger opposition than in the last two renewals. However, an Altior at his best can complete the hat-trick.
In an ordinary Champion Hurdle, Epatante has the best form of the British runners. He should beat the male horses, but it's worth noting that mares get a seven-pound allowance. Honeysuckle will probably go for the Mares' Hurdle, but the horse is still in the running for the Champion Hurdle and gets the weight concession. She has the ratings to win the race, but Epatante can deliver in her absence.
At this stage of proceedings the Gold Cup looks like an open contest with online bookmakers going +300 the field and quoting eight horses at single-figure odds. Santini was one of the leading novice chasers last season and looked a potential Gold Cup winner on his last start at Cheltenham in January. The horse produced a best Racing Post Rating (RPR) in that race but has to improve to win the Gold Cup.
The Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup treble on the Henderson horses is over +5500 with Bovada. On past form Henderson wins at least one of those races and could even deliver the winning multiple in those three events. However, Mullins and Elliott will almost certainly train more winners at the Festival and finish ahead of Henderson in the final standings.