Rachael Blackmore has been backed from +800 last week to +400 with Bovada to be the leading jockey at next week's Cheltenham Festival. It is testimony to her ability that it's still a decent price even though female jockeys took just 5.7% of rides over jumps in Britain in 2018. Extrapolated data from the last five years suggests there should be an even split of rides on the Flat and over jumps between men and women in the UK in 50 years' time.

The 2019 Cheltenham Festival showed the progress made by female jockeys over the last five seasons. Blackmore, Bryony Frost and Lizzie Kelly rode winners at the meeting. Consequently, 14.35% of the 28 saluting horses had female riders, which was a good strike rate because only 9.2% of all the runners were assisted by women. The record shows it is skill as much as strength that is required to be a successful jumps jockey.

Here are the races won by ladies at Cheltenham last March:

Rachael Blackmore – Close Brothers Novices' Chase (A Plus Tard), Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle (Minella Indo)
Bryony Frost – Ryanair Chase (Frodon)
Lizzie Kelly – Stable Plate Chase (Siruh Du Lac)

Only Paul Townend and Barry Geraghty are a shorter price than Blackmore to be the top jockey at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. The two wins last year were her first successes at the UK's biggest jumps meeting.

Blackmore's rise through the riding ranks is indicated by her year-by-year record of winners in Ireland. In the 2017-18 campaign, she had 34 winners from 375 rides. Last season, she finished finished second behind Davy Russell (109 wins) in the Irish jump jockeys' championship with 90 wins from 615 rides and finished fourth in the prize money standings with connections raking in €1,693,940.

This term, with two months of racing still to go, Blackmore has 60 wins from 436 rides. She is currently third behind Townend (97 wins from 307 rides) and Russell (65 wins from 334 rides) in the standings for this season. Only Townend has won more races and total prize money than Blackmore. She has a number of outstanding rides at Cheltenham next week and +400 for the jockeys' title looks fair.

According to the latest betting markets, Honeysuckle is Blackmore's best chance if she runs in the Mares' Hurdle. However, trainer Henry de Bromhead may target the Champion Hurdle, where the horse gets a seven-pound allowance on the male runners in the field. Benie Des Dieux is another mare that could run in either race, but beating that horse is not beyond Honeysuckle. She has a perfect seven from seven win record over hurdles, starting favourite in each race and always ridden by Blackmore. The mare's best Racing Post Rating (RPR) is 160 while Epatante, the Champion Hurdle favourite, has a top RPR of 157, which suggests Honeysuckle can be competitive in the more important race.

A Plus Tard was one of Blackmore's Festival wins last season, in the Novices' Chase. The horse is now a leading contender for the Ryanair Chase next Thursday at best odds of +250. If the trainer takes the Champion Chase option, Blackmore would have a slightly weaker book of rides. The Ryanair looks easier to win, so the race is key to Blackmore's Cheltenham leading jockey prospects. Minella Indo (RSA) and Aspire Tower (Triumph) are other decent rides.

Blackmore had two winners at Grade 1 level at the Dublin Racing Festival in February. The jockey can accumulate winners in the ordinary races and can handle the pressure when it matters most. The combination of delivering by quantity and quality makes Blackmore a good bet to be the first female leading rider at the Cheltenham Festival, but Honeysuckle and A Plus Tard probably need to win.