The Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle has been a good guide to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in the past. This year's renewal at Punchestown last Sunday has led to some market movers for the first race on day one of the Cheltenham Festival in March. Carefully Selected ran a good trial for the National Hunt Chase on the same card, while Frodon looked back to his best at Kempton on Saturday and is now +700 at Bovada to win the Ryanair Chase at successive Festivals.
Frodon's impressive win in the Silviniaco Conti Chase on Saturday was overshadowed by the furore surrounding Altior. The horse is trained by Nicky Henderson, who is an ambassador for the race sponsors, Unibet. Altior was still an intended runner and the odds-on favourite when there was a betting move on his stable mate, Top Notch. The original favourite was subsequently withdrawn and the trainer was insistent there was no insider trading.
Henderson has done nothing wrong, but the situation was handled poorly. There seemed to be a lack of communication and the betting public could claim there was skulduggery, but the evidence suggests otherwise. Altior did not run and is now being targeted at the Champion Chase at Cheltenham, which it won in 2018 and 2019. Badsworth Boy is the only three-time winner (1983, 1984 and 1985). Altior is now +350 with online bookmakers to complete the treble.
Altior looked laboured in his last race at Ascot, where Cyrname ended his run of 19 wins. However, if he comes back to his best he will take a great deal of beating in the two-mile championship chase. That is a big ‘if' and there are some improvers in the race who are less exposed than the horses Altior has beaten in the last two years. Defi Du Seuil is currently +400 to win the 2020 Champion Chase.
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The irony of the Altior episode is that Top Notch did not win the race at the centre of the story. Frodon won the Kempton Grade 2 contest and looks set for the Ryanair Chase, where the horse could lock horns with Cyrname.
Frodon is trained by Paul Nicholls, who said from his winter holiday base: “The obvious route is to go to the Ryanair and defend his crown, but we'll consider all options. The owner would love to have a runner in the Gold Cup but the Ryanair Chase is probably the favourite.”
Frodon can be backed at +3300 to win the Gold Cup, which is the last major championship race of the Festival. Andy Dufresne and Captain Guinness are contenders for the Supreme, which kicks off the best race meeting in the world.
Andy Dufresne won the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle and Captain Guinness was three-quarters of a length adrift in second place. The runner-up ran with as much credit as the winner in a race previously won by Vautour and Douvan, both of which went on to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham. Andy Dufresne is trained by Gordon Elliott, who believes his horse will be suited by better ground. Captain Guinness is in the care of Henry de Bromhead, who saw a positive run against a good horse.
Carefully Selected won the novice chase at Punchestown and is now the +450 to win the National Hunt Chase. The horse jumped cleanly and safely, and those attributes will be important for the Festival race in which there were only four finishers from a field of 18 runners last year. Carefully Selected made all and won by 24 lengths from the horse that won the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle in 2019. Meanwhile, Altior and Frodon are prominent in the betting for their carefully selected 2020 Cheltenham Festival targets.