History suggests there will be winners from the Dublin Racing Festival that go on to salute at Cheltenham in March. Chacun Pour Soi, Delta Work and Honeysuckle can deliver the goods.
Last season two horses won at the two-day Leopardstown meeting in February and completed the double at the Cheltenham Festival the following month. In 2018 eight winners in Ireland then won races at the Gloucestershire carnival.
The ground was unseasonably quick last year and the going at Cheltenham was good to soft, so two winners doubling up was a low total. Conversely, the total of eight winners at both meetings the previous year was well above expectations. We only have data for two years, but three dual-festival winners is a reasonable expectation this year and there are several contenders. The ground was yielding to soft on both days at Leopardstown and soft will probably be in the going description at Cheltenham over the four days.
The top jumps trainers in Ireland dominated the 2020 Dublin Racing Festival. Gordon Elliott and Willie Mullins both had four winners. The only other multiple-winning trainer was Henry de Bromhead, who trained two winners. There were five winning favourites and the range of starting prices for the winning horses was -137.49 to +3300. Rachael Blackmore rode two Grade 1 winners and was the joint-leading jockey with Paul Townend and Kevin Brouder.
Chacun Pour Soi produced the highest Racing Post Rating (RPR) in Ireland this season in winning the Dublin Chase. The horse is now the +275 second favourite at Bovada behind Defi du Seuil for the Queen Mother Champion Chase. The dual winner Altior is trading at a slightly bigger price and its +1200 bar. The combined price for the three market leaders is 1/5 (1.2). That's a return on investment of 20%, which the big hitters may see as a bargain. Altior is the defending champion.
The Racing Post headline on Tuesday summed up how trainer Nicky Henderson feels about his horse after a gallop before a planned run at Newbury on Saturday: “No horse in England would have kept up with him.” Henderson thinks Altior is as good as ever. Defi du Seuil is an English-trained horse, so in theory he should be taken care of by Altior. However, Chacun Pour Soi is trained in Ireland and on ratings and form is the horse to beat in the Champion Chase. He offers the best value at the current odds.
Delta Work is as big as +800 with some online bookmakers to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but he is half that price with other bookies. The horse stayed on to beat Kemboy by one-and-a-half lengths in the Irish equivalent. The race distance was three miles, but Delta Work produced a run that suggested improvement over a long distance. The Gold Cup is run over three miles and two furlongs, and that could be right up Delta Work's street. He is a second-season chaser like Lostintranslation and Santini. All three horses have the potential to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but Delta Work is preferred.
Honeysuckle won the Irish Champion Hurdle, but the performance did not shout out the English equivalent at Cheltenham. The form is not up to the standard of a typical Champion Hurdle winner and connections may choose to bypass that race. Honeysuckle is female, so the Mares' Hurdle is the alternative target. Benie Des Dieux is the odds-on favourite for the race, but Honeysuckle could be the value bet at +275 with Bovada. The treble on these Dublin Racing Festival winners to then oblige at Cheltenham is +12500 at the best odds.