Summerville Boy and Silver Streak are two promising each-way bets against the field for the Champion Hurdle on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival in March. The horses at the head of the market do not have ideal credentials, which means there could be a long-priced winner and placed horses.
Here are some Champion Hurdle 10-year betting trends which show the shape of the market on the day of the race:
• Average price of the winners: almost +600.
• Range of starting prices: -149.99 to +1600.
• Number of outright and joint favourites: five.
• Odds-on favourites: two.
• Double-figure priced winners: two.
• Most common range of odds: five winners from -149.99 to +275.
At the time of writing, Summerville Boy is +2500 with Bovada and Silver Streak is +3300. These prices have been traded over the last 24 hours and are subject to change. Please bear in mind the dangers of ante-post betting – for if the backed horse is withdrawn before the day of the race, all ante-post bets are losers. The upside is that generally the odds offer more value than the starting prices and the odds on the day of the race when the betting margins are tighter.
However, the dynamic changes with the introduction of the non-runner/no bet concession. From about the middle of February, several bookmakers offer NR/NB for the four main championship races at the Festival. The concession initially applies to the following feature races on the four days of the meeting:
• Tuesday – Champion Hurdle.
• Wednesday – Champion Chase.
• Thursday – Stayers' Hurdle.
• Friday – Gold Cup.
The concession is usually extended to all 28 races at the end of February.
Summerville Boy and Silver Streak can currently be backed at well over the average price for the winner of the Champion Hurdle since 2010. All but one winner since that year was rated within eight pounds of the Racing Post's top-rated horse. Sharjah is that horse for this year's race and his RPR is 168. Summerville Boy's best mark is 156 and Silver Streak's best mark is 157. Both tips would be defying some well-established trends if they prevailed in the 2020 Champion Hurdle.
Some racing pundits swear by speed figures based on the simple truth that the fastest horse wins. However, the waters are muddied by the eight obstacles which can level the playing field in the Champion Hurdle. It is worth noting that three of the five best horses based on speed ratings are females. The figures include the seven-pound mare's allowance, which is subject to debate. Apple's Jade has produced the best speed figures but gets seven pounds off the boys.
You could argue that a championship race should be a level-weights contest. That view is held by Michael O'Leary, the owner of Apple's Jade. The fastest colt or gelding is Klassical Dream, which is seven pounds behind Apple's Jade on the speed ratings. The horses are closely matched on Racing Port Ratings and form, but Klassical Dream will carry 11-10 while Apple's Jade carries 11-03. The mare Annie Power won the Champion Hurdle in 2016, but My Tent Or Yours was the best horse.
Summerville Boy won the Supreme Novices' Hurdle in 2018 but ran poorly in four races last season. The horse looked almost back to his best when winning the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year's Day. He produced an RPR of 155 compared to that career-high of 156. Silver Streak's joint-best mark of 157 was produced in his last race, the Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day. Both horses are peaking for the hurdle race that matters most and offer some excellent ante-post betting value at online bookmakers.