Horse racing in the UK will probably take place behind closed doors by the end of the week. There will be an announcement about the Grand National in the next few days. With the coronavirus pandemic causing fatalities, racing is not so important. However, the betting and racing industries are significant employers and contribute to the UK's finances through taxes and levies. Racing will continue with a limited team of staff and participants.
The jumps racing between the Cheltenham Festival and Aintree Grand National meeting is ordinary. The start of the turf Flat season at the end of the month is nothing to get excited about, though the Lincoln at Doncaster is always a competitive handicap. With that in mind, this week is a good opportunity to look at the ante-post betting markets for the four major championship races at the 2021 Festival. The best bet is Goshen to win the Champion Hurdle at +600 with Bovada.
Despite not winning the Triumph Hurdle last Friday, Goshen produced a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 156. In winning the Champion Hurdle on the first day of the Cheltenham meeting Epatante ran to a mark of 163. That horse receives a mare's allowance, so Goshen must make up the equivalent of seven lengths to beat the 2020 champion. However, if Goshen had not unseated the jockey at the final flight of the Triumph Hurdle he could have produced a RPR above 156.
It's also worth noting that Goshen is a relatively young horse and we can expect some improvement from the age of four to five. The horse has had four starts over hurdles and 10 in total. Epatante has raced six times over the smaller obstacles and nine times in total. There is very little to choose between the horses for experience, but Epatante, aged six, has probably peaked and there will be little room for improvement.
Goshen can improve the record for horses aged five in the Champion Hurdle. Espoir d'Allen was the winner last year, but the last five-year-old to win the race before then was Katchit in 2008, having won the Triumph the previous season. Since 1980 only three five-year-olds have won the race, probably because they are still developing and are at a disadvantage with older horses. Our Conor won the Triumph hurdle in 2013 but fell when a leading contender for the Champion a year later. Pentland Hills was the only horse aged five this year and he finished 19 lengths behind Epatante.
The written commentary for Goshen for the latter stages of the Triumph Hurdle last week was “in command and nearly 10 lengths up when mistake and unseated rider last, unlucky”. The horse looked like extending his lead on the run-in and the winning margin could have been much further. Connections were devastated, but on reflection they will realise that Goshen is a special horse that could win the Champion Hurdle in 12 months and a number of years beyond.
Concertista is another horse with the potential to progress to that level. The Willie Mullins runner won the Mares' Novices' Hurdle by 12 lengths to maintain the trainer's perfect winning record in the five-year history of the race. She ran to a RPR of 147, which means she has something to find with Epatante. Concertista could hardly have won more impressively at the Festival last week and there is scope for improvement. The horse offers some each-way value at +2500 with Bovada for the 2021 Champion Hurdle, but the nap for the race is still Goshen.