UK racing news: Big mover in Grand National betting

Racing Online - Tips - UK racing news: Big mover in Grand National betting

Here is the latest Grand National betting news, thoughts on Thursday’s Listed race, betting trends for the Peterborough Chase on Friday and weights for returning National winners.   

Kimberlite Candy firms in Grand National ante-post betting

Vieux Lion Rouge won the Becher Chase at Aintree last Saturday, but Kimberlite Candy was the potential Grand National runner to take out of the race and is +3300 to win the most famous steeplechase in the world.

The winner won the same race in 2016 and is a definite course specialist. The 11-year-old has run over the Grand National course nine times and always completed the race without any mishaps. Online bookmakers are paying as much as +5000 for Vieux Lion Rouge to win the National at the fourth attempt. 

Kimberlite Candy jumped well after a first-fence error despite losing a shoe. On first glance finishing second to Vieux Lion Rouge by 24 lengths giving 13lbs was a modest affair, but the horse’s stamina will be a bigger factor in the National.     

The Grand National is a handicap, so the standard ante-post terms are one-quarter the win odds for four places. Some bookmakers pay out on five places and one-fifth the odds. Others go to five places at one-quarter the odds, but the trade-off is a shorter quote for Kimberlite Candy.

Zambella worthy favourite for Thursday’s best race

Zambella has the highest Official Rating of the seven-runner field and the +275 favourite for the Mares’ Novices’ Chase at Warwick, which is the only Listed race in the UK and Ireland on Thursday. 

A penalty means Zambella carries 5lbs more than the other runners aged five and older, and 12lbs more than Diva De Vassy, the only four-year-old in the field. 

However, an impressive win at Bangor in a similar race last month suggests Zambella carries a manageable weight. The French-bred mare has decent form in the country of her birth. 

On the basis of distance and going, Legend’s Gold is the horse for the forecast. Her rating could have been higher but for a fall two fences out at Uttoxeter after trying to make all as the +187.5 favourite.         

Peterborough Chase betting trends

Huntingdon stages the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase on Friday. Below are some betting trends for the last 10 winners of the race.  

  • Average price: almost +350
  • Range of SPs: -225.02 to +750
  • Number of favourites: 5
  • Odds-on favourites: 1
  • Double figure odds winners: 0

Grand National winner weights following time

Returning to the Grand National, Vieux Lion Rouge is a great example of the Aintree factor. This applies to horses proven over the unique fences. The handicapper takes Aintree experience into account when framing the weight for future races.

The issue will come to the fore when the weights for the 2021 Grand National are announced next February and how Tiger Roll is treated. This table shows the weight each National winner since 2010 was allocated when running in the race the next time:

2010Don’t Push it11-05201111-103rd
2012Neptune Collognes11-06NANANA
2013Auroras Encore10-03NANANA
2014Pineau De Re10-06201511-0012th
2015Many Clouds11-09201611-1016th
2016Rule The World10-07NANANA
2017One For Arthur10-11201911-006th
2018Tiger Roll10-13201911-05WON
2019Tiger Roll11-052020No Race2021?

 Here are six key facts taken from this table: 

  1. Number of qualifiers – 6
  2. Lowest rise in weights – 1lb
  3. Highest rise in weights – 9lbs
  4. Finishers – 6
  5. Winners – 1 
  6. Average finishing position – 7th 

So, what weight will Tiger Roll carry if running in 2021 and trying to be the first horse to win three successive Grand Nationals? 

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