Notebook is the current ante-post favourite at +350 with Bovada for the Arkle Chase, which is the second race on the first day of the Cheltenham Festival in March. The horse is entered in the equivalent race at the Dublin Racing Festival on Saturday. He would have to win impressively to shorten for the Arkle and at the latest odds, other horses are preferred. Our two against the field for the novice chasers' championship over two miles are Maire Banrigh and Al Dancer.
The ERSG Arkle Novice Chase is one of the eight Grade 1 races at Leopardstown this weekend. It is the most important trial in Ireland for the Arkle at Cheltenham, so the race will be informative. Notebook is the favourite for Ireland's version of the Arkle, but the field will probably include two lively Willie Mullins runners in Cash Back and Bapaume. Fakir D'Oudairies is the second favourite for Cheltenham's Arkle but may not run in the trial.
The Leopardstown race is a dress rehearsal for the main event in March. The outcome could see a shake up in Arkle Chase betting at the top end of the market. Melon is a high-class hurdler and if the horse translates that form to fences in Ireland on Saturday, he would get right in the mix for the Cheltenham Festival. The betting is currently dominated by Irish-trained horses. The result of Leopardstown's Arkle will not affect the odds for the British-trained runners.
Pricewise in the Racing Post is a respected tipster who has a history of identifying big-priced winners. His ante-post betting preview in the paper this week pinpointed the following 10-year Arkle Chase trends:
• 10 had a RPR rating of 149 or better over hurdles.
• Nine finished in the first two in all completed chases.
• Nine were returned at a starting price of +600 or shorter.
• Nine were aged six or seven.
• Eight had run in three to five chases.
• Seven were trained by Willie Mullins or Nicky Henderson.
• The leading jockey still riding is Barry Geraghty with two wins.
All but two of the winners of the Arkle over the last 10 years had won a Grade 1 to 3 chase over two miles or two miles and one furlong. Seven winners had run at the Cheltenham Festival in the past. Nine winners since 2010 had won off an adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 163. Seven winners were also top-rated and two others were rated within five pounds of the horse with the best mark.
No potential runner ticks all those boxes, but Maire Banrigh and Al Dancer meet enough of the criteria to be considered at +2000 and +2500 respectively. The place terms are one-fifth the odds for three places and some online bookmakers will be offering non-runner/no bet markets soon. The two selections should be on offer at the current prices until the NRNB concession applies.
Maire Banrigh has been impressive over fences. The horse started at a low grade and won carrying 12-06 at Stratford. The trainer believes his horse stays two and a half miles but is more effective over short distances. Maire Banrigh should improve on better ground, so the current price will look big if the track is dry on the day of the race.
Al Dancer ran well in a recent start at Doncaster when beaten by Master Fisher by one length and goes straight for the Arkle. The horse has something to find with the market leaders on official and Racing Post ratings. However, he won the Betfair Hurdle carrying 11-08 in February 2019. That is decent form in the context of the Arkle, which is a race suited to classy hurdlers. Al Dancer and Maire Banrigh should be in your betting portfolio for the Arkle Chase.