Will Tiger Roll run in the 2020 Grand National?

The Grand National will make the front pages of the newspapers if Tiger Roll becomes the first horse to win three in three years in the spring. Red Rum is the only three-time winner, but that was over five years. While Tiger Roll has a chance to make history, there is no guarantee he will feature at Aintree this April.

The British and Irish Nationals begin with the Sussex version at Plumpton over three miles and four-and-a-half furlongs in the first week of the year. There is one National of sorts in every month except August. The longest National is the Grand National and the shortest is the Mayo National over just two miles and seven furlongs. There is £1 million on offer in the world’s most famous chase on April 4. Tiger Roll is the current ante-post betting favourite at +700 with Bovada.

Tiger Roll is owned by Gigginstown House Stud, the racing interest of Ryanair CEO and co-founder Michael O’Leary. The budget airline is run on strict financial principles, which means the company can offer cheap basic flights but with charges for any additional services. O’Leary runs his racing operation along the same lines, as Willie Mullins found to his cost. The world and his wife want Tiger Roll to run the National, but a decision may be based on a cost-benefit analysis.

Mullins and Gordon Elliott trained the bulk of the Gigginstown portfolio of horses. However, when Mullins increased his training fees, O’Leary would not accept the rise in costs and transferred 60 horses to Elliott’s stable. Even though the two men are amicable, there is an impasse because neither will budge. This situation did not affect Tiger Roll because the horse has always been in the care of Elliott since arriving in Ireland.

Elliott has won the Grand National three times, including in the last two years with Tiger Roll. Mullins’ only National winner is Hedgehunter in 2005. No trainer other than Elliott has won more than one Aintree National this century. Davy Russell rode Tiger Roll in his two winning Nationals. Only the retired Ruby Walsh and Leighton Aspell have also ridden two winners of the National over the last 20 years. Trevor Hemmings is the leading owner since 2000 with three wins.

The Grand National is a handicap, which means each horse is allocated a weight based on past form and runs over the National fences. The range is 10 stone to 11 stone and 10 pounds. The handicapper frames the weights to ensure horses run to their true weight, but they also try to give better runners a chance with a manageable weight. Tiger Roll’s weight for the 2020 Grand National is the bone of contention between O’Leary and the handicapper. Tiger Roll will not run if O’Leary feels the horse is asked to carry too much weight. He pays the bills so makes the call.

His uncompromising stance could be seen as blackmailing the handicapper to give Tiger Roll the benefit of the doubt. O’Leary has shown in business and race horse ownership that he does not bluff, but the Tiger Roll situation may pull on his heart strings and ultimately he may not be able deny the horse’s place in sporting history. A third National win in succession would surpass Red Rum’s three wins in the 1973, 1974 and 1977 renewals. Tiger Roll is currently returning to race fitness, but connections have not confirmed an attempt at the unique hat-trick at Aintree.

O’Leary’s racing manager, his brother Eddie, was giving nothing away when he reported on the wellbeing of Tiger Roll, which has not run since landing his second National last April. He told reporters: “He’s sound and he’s trotting and swimming, so he’s doing as well as expected.”

Tiger Roll could reappear in the hurdle race at Navan he won last year. The main target is then the cross country chase at Cheltenham that Tiger Roll has won at the last two Festivals. Tiger Roll could then be retired, but O’Leary will find it difficult to resist going for an historical third Grand National.