The fourth and final day of the Leopardstown Christmas Festival (Sunday 29th December) featured key trials for the Cheltenham Festival in March. Battleoverdoyen and Sharjah won the Grade 1 races and are now leading contenders for the RSA Chase and Champion Hurdle. Champ runs at Cheltenham on New Year's Day and his performance will have a bearing on the betting for the former race.
The Relkeel Hurdle also takes place at Cheltenham this Wednesday. It is a Grade 2 race over two miles, four and a half furlongs and there are 10 obstacles. Rock On Ruby won the race in 2014, having won the Champion Hurdle in 2012. More Of That is also a former winner and that horse won the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2014.
Three of the last four winners of the race were aged 6. Barry Geraghty is the leading jockey over the last 10 years with three wins, all trained by Nicky Henderson who is the leading trainer since 2010.
The race was first run in 1988 and the winning-most age is four with seven wins. The outcome of the Relkeel Hurdle often has implications for the Cheltenham Festival ante post betting market.
Here are some 10 year betting trends that can help identify the leading contenders:
- The average price of the winners: +450.
- Range of Staring Prices: -200 to +1600.
- Number of outright and joint favourites: 5.
- Odds-on favourites: 3.
- Double-figure priced winners: 1
- Most common range of odds: 4 winners from -500 to +125.
All the winners had run at least once before in the current season. Each winner had already won two or more races over hurdles. Eight winners were rated 150 or higher.
Top Notch ticks most of the trends' boxes and has won at the highest level over fences. The horse last contested a hurdle race in December 2018, he was third in the Long Walk Hurdle, finishing almost six lengths behind the winner, Paisley Park, off level weights. That horse won the Stayers' Hurdle at Cheltenham in March.
Top Notch has run to a career-high Official Rating (OR) of 150 over hurdles. The horse has run to a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 159 over the smaller obstacles. He has 16 wins from 29 starts under National Hunt racing rules, nine over fences and seven over hurdles.
Janika is the current ante post favourite for the Relkeel Hurdle at +225 with Bovada. The horse looks a vulnerable favourite at this level over hurdles. Janika has a best RPR of 167 in chases but only 121 in hurdle races.
Summerville Boy is an interesting potential runner at +700 with Bovada. After winning the Supreme Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in 2018, the horse was backed to win the Champion Hurdle the following season. Four poor subsequent runs led to wind surgery and a break of 182 days.
The horse won a beginner's chase at Uttoxeter and then fell in a Grade 1 novices' chase at Sandown at the start of December. Returning to hurdles, Summerville Boy has the ratings to get in the mix for the Rekleel Hurdle but Top Notch is too good to ignore.
Champ could put down a marker for the RSA Chase at Cheltenham this Wednesday. Battleoverdoyen enters calculations for the novice chasers' championship race after winning at Leopardstown. He produced a fine round of jumping and the trainer believes his horse will mature into a decent chaser. Battleoverdoyen ran to a RPR of 158 while Champ's best mark over fences is 156. His run on Wednesday and rating will provide a good form guide for Cheltenham.
Klassical Dream was a clear favourite for the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown on Sunday. The horse ran poorly and the race was won by Sharjah for the second year in succession. Klassical Dream won the Supreme at Cheltenham in March and has been prominent in the betting for the Champion Hurdle since that day. The horse has drifted to +1000 and the favourite is now Epatante at +250. Sharjah is +1000 in from +2500 with Bovada to win the 2020 Champion Hurdle.