The Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton on Saturday provides an opportunity for Altior to get his season back on track, and for big punters to make a 33% return on investment. The horse can be backed at -300.03 with Bovada to win the Grade 2 race over two miles and four-and-a-half furlongs. Top Notch and Frodon are on offer at +550, while the three other quoted runners are +2500 and bigger. On form and ratings, Altior has a few pounds in hand and can get back to winning ways.
The feature of the supporting card at the Surrey track is the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle over two miles and five furlongs. The ante-post betting suggests it is an open contest with the favourite at +600 and 12 horses priced at +1000 or less. The valuable prize should attract 16 runners or more, which means each-way bets are settled at one-quarter the odds for four places. However, it is the type of race for which online bookmakers offer extra places, so five or six horses could be in the frame for betting.
Kempton is within easy travelling distance of London. However, the site is due to close in 2021 and the land will be used for housing. The course is packed on Boxing Day for the King George VI Chase, but more typical are the poorly attended All Weather fixtures during the winter. The King George is set to move to Sandown and fixtures like the one on Saturday will move to other courses owned by the Jockey Club. Altior will be one of the highest-rated runners at the track before it closes.
Kempton is a flat, right-handed track that is a test of speed rather than stamina. Altior has won the last two Champion Chases at the Cheltenham Festival, where the horse displayed the high cruising speed that is suited to Kempton. Defeat on Saturday is out of the question.
SEE ALSO: HENDERSON MUST DECIDE ON DISTANCE FOR ALTIOR
Altior was beaten by Cyrname at Ascot in November to break a run of 19 wins. The horse has won Grade 1 races at the last four Cheltenham Festivals and was unbeaten over jumps. The trainer, Nicky Henderson, has admitted that Altior was not fully fit at Ascot. His horse did not run as planned over two miles at Christmas. However, his jockey, Nico de Boinville, reports that the horse recently produced an impressive piece of work on the gallops.
The other five runners are racing for second place. Prevailing circumstances dictate that Frodon is preferred to Top Notch, also trained by Henderson. Top Notch won the race last year when it was a listed contest. He has produced a career-high Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 169, while Frodon's best mark is 177. Both standout pieces of form are quite historical but, on balance, Frodon is the selection for the straight forecast behind Altior.
Horses aged four and older are eligible for the Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, but no horse at the minimum age has won the race since it was first run in 1978. Nine of the last 10 winners were aged six, seven, or eight. Seven winners this century carried 11 stones or more. Henderson and Paul Nicholls have both trained two winners over the last seven years. Since 2013, Barry Geraghty has ridden one winner prepared by each trainer. The winners in 2006 and 2015 were ridden by female jockeys.
Soul Emotion for Henderson and Pic d'Orby for Nicholls have the joint-highest RPRs of the declared runners at this stage of proceedings. However, Chti Balko is only a few pounds below their level and can be backed at +1000 with Bovada. Chti Balko is trained by Donald McCain, who rarely has a wasted journey from Cheshire when he has a runner in the south. However, whatever the horse produces at Kempton on Saturday, the star of the show should be Altior.