Aidan O'Brien has won the Epsom Oaks seven times, between 1998 and 2018. He trains the ante-post betting favourite in Love for this year's renewal on July 4. However, there could be some value in backing one of his other potential runners in Peaceful who is currently on offer for the Oaks at +1600 with Bovada. That price would be slashed if the horse was an impressive winner of the Irish 1,000 Guineas at the Curragh this Saturday. Of the English-trained runners, Frankly Darling could be anything and there is mileage in a speculative each way bet at +1200 for the Oaks.
On the evidence of the English 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, Love is the best three-year-old filly in training in the UK and Ireland. There were excuses for a number of other fancied runners but the horse was a decisive winner over the straight mile. Love got into contention during the fastest part of the race. However, it was more a grinding win because she outstayed the other horses. The nature of the win suggests Love will stay the extra half mile in the Oaks and her pedigree suggests the distance will not be an issue. However, Love is not a backable price at +150.
Due to the structure of the season, horses will almost certainly not be able to run in more than one Guineas. That means Love did not beat all the best female three-year-old horses over one mile trained in Europe at Newmarket last weekend. The Oaks picture will become clearer after some key trails over the next three weeks. The Irish 1,000 Guineas will be informative, especially in terms of the O'Brien horses. He trains five of the 20 horse declared to run but the betting suggests Peaceful is his best chance. The horse's current Official Rating is 100 but Love ran to 111 in the 1,000 Guineas.
Clearly, Peaceful's price for the Irish equivalent is more based on potential than proven form on the track. However, Quadrilateral has been placed in a Classic and looks a big price compared to Love for the Oaks. The horse ran keenly in the 1,000 Guineas and finished four and a half lengths behind Love in third place. Given an extra half mile in the Oaks the horse will have more time to settle and she has beaten Love in the past. On the same terms Quadrilateral finished almost two lengths ahead of Love in third place when winning the Fillies Mile at Newmarket last October.
The runner that split Quadrilateral and Love was Powerful Breeze, finishing just a head behind the winner. The horse was keen in the early stages but made headway three furlongs from the finish. Powerful Breeze led over one furlong out. She then edged right and that could have been the difference between defeat and victory. An Official Rating of 113 in theory makes Powerful Breeze a better horse than Love and she is at +1600 for the Oaks. However, the horse is not quoted in other bookmakers lists so is unlikely to run at Epsom after a training accident.
Powerful Breeze is a horse to follow in the Group 1 races for which she is eligible in the summer. She has not been ruled out of the Oaks but the trainer may prefer not to rush the horse and wait for opportunities later in the season. In the absence of Powerful Breeze, the fly in the Oaks betting ointment could be Frankly Darling. The John Gosden trained horse has had two career starts and was second as a juvenile at Yarmouth last autumn. She then showed great improvement to win a maiden at Newcastle last Monday by five lengths. However, more progress is required in the Oaks.
The 1,000 Guineas is traditionally one of the best trials for the Oaks. Cloak Of Spirits finished a head in front of Quadrilateral but had a better run on the rails. On ratings the horses ran to the same level and Quadrilateral has run to a higher mark in the past. With no value in backing Love, Quadrilateral could be third in the Guineas and win the Oaks. Frankly Darling may not find the improvement to win the race but could make the frame. However, you should limit bets until Peaceful has run in Ireland and her performance at the Curragh could see a shake-up in the betting for the Oaks.