There is a true saying that you should never write off a horse because of one sub-par performance. That saying applies to Lostintranslation, which should not be dismissed as a leading contender for the Cheltenham Gold Cup after a poor run. Al Boum Photo won the race last year and has the profile to become the first back-to-back winner since Best Mate, which won the Gold Cup in 2002, 2003 and 2004. Of the bigger-priced contenders, Road To Respect could outrun the latest ante-post odds at online bookmakers.
The Cheltenham Gold Cup in the Blue Riband of steeple chasing. It is the most prestigious chase in the world and probably the race the professionals would like to win the most. It is a Grade 1 conditions race in which horses aged five receive a two-pound allowance and mares carry seven pounds less than the male horses. However, Dawn Run in 1986 is the last winning mare and she is still the only horse to win the Champion Hurdle and Gold Cup.
Below are some 10-year Gold Cup betting trends:
• The average price of the winners: almost +750.
• Range of starting prices: +225 to +2000.
• Number of outright and joint favourites: three.
• Odds-on favourites: none.
• Double-figure priced winners: two.
• Most common range of odds: four winners from +500 to +700.
Every winner since 2010 had already won a Grade 1 race. All but one winner was aged from seven to nine. Four of the last six horses to prevail in the Gold Cup were trained in Ireland. Five of the last 10 winners contested the King George VI Chase or Savills Chase, which was previously called the Lexus Chase. Nicky Henderson is the only multiple-winning trainer over the last decade with Long Run in 2011 and Bobs Worth in 2013. Both those horses were the favourite, as was one of Ireland's six winners.
Novices have a poor record in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Coneygree in 2015 was the first novice to win the race since 1974. That horse also won the race without having already run at the Cheltenham Festival and that last happened in 1996. The Racing Post summed up the trends succinctly with the headline: “Concentrate on younger Grade 1 winners with previous festival form”. That profile applies to Lostintranslation and Al Boum Photo but not Road To Respect. As Meat Loaf said: “two out three ain't bad”.
Road To Respect can be backed at +3300 with Bovada in the latest ante-post betting. Please bear in mind that any Gold Cup odds quoted in this article are being traded and are subject to change. The comments about ante-post betting in the Champion Hurdle preview apply to the Gold Cup. Until online bookmakers introduce the non-runner/no bet concession in February, any withdrawn horses will result in losing bets. The upside is better value in the odds than the starting prices. Road To Respect will run an honest race on soft ground and could make the payout places at a big price.
The horse will probably be running for minor honours because Lostintranslation and Al Boum Photo are the win selections. Lostintranslation (+800) ran poorly in the King George and was pulled up. One swallow does not make a summer and any horse is forgiven one bad race. Lostintranslation goes straight to Cheltenham and runs with an operation on his palate that could have been troubling the horse in the King George. Lostintranslation is the headline Gold Cup tip.