Yanworth is head and shoulders above the other runners in the Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase at Cheltenham this Friday on hurdles form. The horse started the +200 favourite for the Champion Hurdle in 2017. That is a level of ability that no other horse in the field for the cross country race can match. Therefore, Yanworth is the horse to back at +400 with online bookmakers.
Cheltenham's cross country course is located in the centre of the track and finishes at the conventional winning post in the straight. The runners clear 32 obstacles on Friday, including banks, hedges, water jumps and hurdles. The course characteristics suit nimble jumpers who can adapt to the various jumping tests. Yanworth was a fast and accurate hurdler.
The value of course form should not be underestimated. Horses run well in a number of cross country races and others underperform. Josies Orders (2nd) and Urgent De Grenaine (3rd) finished behind Tiger Roll at the Festival in March. Yanworth may have the speed and class but has never competed in a cross country race at Cheltenham.
The horse is now trained by Enda Bolger, who is the master of cross country racing at the home of jumps racing. He has built a variety of obstacles at his stables, so his runners are not facing a new experience at Cheltenham. A cross country race was added to the Festival in 2005 and Bolger has trained five winners. Josies Orders won the race for the trainer in 2016.
Yanworth produced a career-high Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 165 when winning the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton in 2016. Josies Orders won Friday's race in 2015 and ran to a top mark of 153. The race on Friday is a handicap, so horses have been allocated a weight based on previous form. Yanworth is set to carry one pound more than Josies Orders.
Collateral form is not an exact science. Other things remaining equal, Yanworth wins by at least 10 lengths. However, other things rarely remain equal and many other factors could count against Yanworth. The horse might not take to the variety of obstacles and the distance may take Yanworth out of his comfort zone. Even so, on ratings and form Yanworth looks the right favourite.
Friday's favourite won a similar race at Punchestown last month, but the race distance was three miles. Yanworth won a Grade 1 hurdle over slightly more than three miles at Aintree in 2017. The horse beat Supasundae into second place by one length off level weights. That form has been franked, but a hurdle race on a sharp track is a different proposition to a cross course race on a galloping course.
Neverushacon was one and a half lengths adrift of Yanworth while carrying five pounds more at Punchestown. The horse carries eight pounds less than Yanworth on Friday so could be a shout. The relative weights suggest Neverushacon should beat Yanworth by several lengths, but the favourite should have progressed from a first run in the discipline.
The ‘Bolger Factor' is key to the outcome of the race, but there are too many imponderables with Yanworth. Bolger also trains Blue Templar, which won a Punchestown cross country race this May when Josies Orders finished second. Yanworth certainly has the class, but Blue Templar's experience in the discipline is the deciding factor. Place your each-way bets on Blue Templar at +800.