Bangkok is -125 with Bovada to win the Winter Derby at Lingfield on Saturday and even at odds-on that is a price worth taking. The most prestigious race on artificial surfaces other then the All-Weather Championships has nine declared runners. If no more than one horse is withdrawn, each-way bets will be settled at one-fifth the odds for three places. With Bangkok well ahead in the ratings, the other runners on the field are racing for the two payout places.

The Winter Derby is run over one mile and two furlongs. The turf Flat Derby is confined to horses aged three, but the AW version is for horses aged four and older. The race was first run in 1998 and is one of only four Group races on the all-weather and it is the first Group race of the season in the UK. No horse has won the race more than once. The leading trainer is Clive Brittain and the leading jockey is Frankie Dettori, who rode the winner last season, Wissahickon.

Here are some key betting trends for the winners over the last decade:

• Average price of winner: over +450
• Range of prices: -400 to +1600
• Number of favourites: five
• Odds on winners: one
• Double figure odds winners: two
• British-trained winners: 10
• Irish-trained winners: none
• Most common age: four

Also take a look at these key race trends for the last 12 runnings of the Winter Derby:

• 10 winners aged four to six
• Six won on previous run
• Three ran in Winter Derby Trial.
• 10 had run at Lingfield
• Eight had won at Lingfield
• Nine previously won over the distance
• 11 won three times or more on the Flat
• 11 rated 105 or higher

Bangkok is aged four and won the Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield on his last outing, so has run and won at the track. That race was also over 12 furlongs, so Bangkok has won over both course and distance. He has won three Flat races and produced a career-high Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 118. Therefore, Bangkok ticks all the boxes and returns to Lingfield as a deserving favourite.

Dubai Warrior is the clear second favourite at about +200 with online bookmakers, so the two market leaders account for about 89% of the book and can be backed at a combined price of -400. That means there is some value in identifying the horse that could finish third.

Court House was second behind Bangkok in the trial, beaten by four-and-a-half lengths off level weights. The horse was only headed by the winner inside the final furlong. Court House will not be able to reverse the form with Bangkok but can reward each-way backers by making the frame.

The Hever Sprint Stakes over five furlongs is the main supporting race on the Winter Derby card. Kachy was a potential runner, but sadly that horse suffered a fatal injury while running at Lingfield last Saturday. The absence of one of the fastest horses in training means Good Effort can win this decent prize at +175 odds. The horse has won his last two starts on artificial surfaces at Newcastle and Lingfield and has the form to prevail.