Asterion Forlonge has the ratings and form to win the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which is the first race of the Cheltenham Festival in March. The opener is sponsored by Sky Bet, who usually have a great promotion for their own race. Asterion Forlonge is the +400 co-favourite of three with the sponsors.

Sky Bet had a money-back special in 2019 and we can expect something similar this year, but nothing has been announced just yet. If the 2020 offer replicates last year's promotion, Sky Bet will refund all losing bets up to £20 in the form of cash and not free bets. The offer applied to the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and the first race on the other three days. It was possible to use matched betting techniques to guarantee a profit of about £60.

Matched betting is a process by which bettors use free bets and incentives to make risk-free money. The technique uses a mathematical equation to match free bets to ensure a profit regardless of the outcome. Horse racing lends itself to match betting because online bookmakers cover many races, so there should be several windows of opportunity to claim a free bet and match it with a betting exchange or other bookmaker bet to guarantee a profit.

The concept of matched betting was discovered and implemented by the gentleman behind Bonus Bagging. He must have made a fortune selling the method, because his service was unique and matched betting worked. The world and his wife have jumped on the bandwagon and the internet is awash with advice and software. If Sky Bet have a Cheltenham money-back special for race one on all four days, you could back Asterion Forlonge and get a refund for £20 if the horse does not oblige.

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SkyBet have launched the non-runner/no bet concession for their own race and the other 27 races at the Festival. If the backed horse is withdrawn before the day of the race, all bets are refunded and the stakes can be used to place other bets. Sky Bet have also introduced a range of RequestABets which combine outcomes that cannot be backed as regular accumulators. The bookmaker will also offer Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) on the day of the race, including for the Supreme.

Here are some 10-year betting trends for the winners of the first race of Cheltenham 2020:

• Nine had an adjusted Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 150 or higher.
• Nine ran in the previous 59 days.
• Eight won last time out.
• Nine had run in a previous Grade 1, 2 or 3 race.
• Seven had won more than half of hurdle races.

Let's see which of those boxes Asterion Forlonge ticks. The horse has recorded a career-high RPR of 156, ran at Leopardstown at the start of February last time out and won the Grade 1 race, which was his second win in two runs over hurdles. Asterion Forlonge has the perfect profile for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle and is the horse to back.

The current place terms are one-fifth the odds for three places. Some bookmakers may offer extra places or settle bets at one-quarter the odds. The each-way dark horse could be Thebannerkingrebel at +3300 with Bovada. The horse was second in a bumper at the Aintree Grand National meeting and won a Listed hurdle at Haydock. Thebannerkingrebel could make the frame for the Supreme, but Asterion Forlonge is tipped to win the race.