Stephen Marsh is confident of Velocious giving another bold account of herself at Pukekohe Park on New Year's Day, although his confidence is tempered by an unfavourable forecast.
The Cambridge trainer will run the daughter of Written Tycoon in the Group 2 Eclipse Stakes (1200m) ahead of the Karaka Million 2YO (1200m) at Ellerslie on January 27.
Velocious has impressed in both of her outings and while Marsh is more than happy with the filly's condition, it is a factor out of his control that is a worry.
“She is going really well, but there does look like there is rain coming and she's certainly not a wet- tracker, so it is a concern,” Marsh said.
“Move To Strike obviously looks very exciting, but our filly will race well. I do think she might be vulnerable, but she needs this run and then she will be cherry ripe for the Karaka Million.”
Velocious was a debut winner at Te Rapa in November and a fortnight later she was untroubled to claim the Listed Counties Challenge Stakes (1100m) with Sam Spratt to take the reins again.
She currently heads the Karaka Million market at $3.20 and will bid to roll back the years for Marsh and Albert Bosma's Go Racing syndication company after they won the juvenile feature in 2013 with Ruud Awakening.
Marsh will also be represented on New Year's Day by Mercurial in the Group 1 Railway (1200m) and El Vencedor in the Group 2 Rich Hill Mile (1600m), but again the forecast has him worried.
“Mercurial is just racing so well, he's going terrific. He jumps and puts himself there and is so honest,” Marsh said.
“It's a good, even field and he is up to running a hell of a race, but he won't want too much rain around. He's always been better on top of the ground.”
Spratt will partner Mercurial, who was a course and distance winner two runs back before a sound runner-up finish on Boxing Day.
El Vencedor is another in fine form and followed up his second in the Listed Fulton Family Stakes (1500m) with a hollow victory in the Group 3 Eagle Technology Stakes (1600m) and Joe Doyle retains the mount.
“Again, he won't want a lot of rain and funnily enough he used to like the wetter tracks earlier on, but he's a bit fussier now,” Marsh said.
“He has drawn well (seven) and it's an even field, so I think he's a good chance again.”
Marsh will also have runners at Taupo on Saturday and tipped Provence as his best winning chance when she resumes in the Mort Webber Memorial (1200m).
“She is fresh and I really like her. She had a long spell after her last prep and she's come back well and doing everything right,” he said.
Doyle will partner the Savabeel four-year-old who hasn't raced since February, but showed her readiness to return with a trial win at Te Awamutu earlier this month.