In this unusual Flat season, the Dante Stakes at York on Thursday is no longer a Derby trial. It is now a standalone Group 2 race and the betting market suggests Highest Ground is the most likely winner. However, the horse looks a vulnerable odds-on favourite and there is some value in opposing him and backing Juan Elcano at +800 with BetOnline.
The Group 3 Musidora Stakes on the same card is the equivalent race for fillies and often identifies a leading contender for the Oaks. Franconia is a backable favourite at +187.5.
The Dante Stakes is run over one mile and two furlongs and 56 yards. The race is confined to the Classic generation, so there are no multiple winners. Here are some betting trends for the winners over the last 10 years:
- Average price: +850
- Range of starting prices: +175 to +3300
- Number of outright and joint favourites: 1
- Odds-on favourites: 0
- Double-figure priced: 2
The average rating over the same spell is 105. All the winners since 2010 had at least two previous runs and one or more win. Only one winner over the last decade had won a previous race at York.
Juan Elcano fits the odds profile of the last 10 winners and has an Official Rating (OR) of 111. The horse has won one race in five starts and is the selection based on the betting and race trends.
Franconia is the trends horse in the Musidora Stakes. There have been four winning favourites in the 10 latest renewals. The average starting price (SP) of the winners is about +350, but that drops to about +200 if you discount last year’s winner at +1400. Franconia’s OR is also close to the 10-year average. In terms of runs and wins, Franconia has the right profile for the 10-furlong race.
Punters who believe in statistics have a qualifying multiple at York this Thursday. The double on Juan Elcano and Franconia pays around +1900 at online bookmakers.