There is some excellent jumps racing at Sandown and Aintree on Saturday but the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on Sunday is also a fascinating contest.
Defi Du Seuil is the horse to back to win the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown and Native River is the tip for the Many Clouds Chase at Aintree. Both races could prove to be important in the context of the King George. The betting for the Cheltenham Gold Cup may also be revised after the weekend’s action.
The John Durkan Memorial Chase in Ireland brings together Min and Presenting Percy who started favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.
One for Arthur (Race 5) and Ultragold (Race 8) have the form over the fences to win around the National course at Aintree.
The five-timer including Min pays +33300 with BetOnline and +111300 with BetOnline if we put Presenting Percy in the multiple bet. That horse has something to prove after a disappointing run at Cheltenham in the spring.
The payout shows the power of combined odds. The five horses are quoted at odds from -125 to +800 so there are no big-priced outsiders in the accumulator. This is a single line bet which means all five horses must win for the bet to be a winner. It’s frustrating to have one loser in a multiple bet and bookmakers offer insurance when it involves football teams. However, there is not the same insurance when one horse lets you down in an acca with five selections or more.
You could play it safe and back the two combinations of five horses in a system bet. A Canadian features 26 combinations while the Lucky 31 is a Canadian with singles. Some bookmakers offer double the odds for one winner in a Lucky 31 which would rarely cover the stake. You can back the five horses in win or each way bets but the odds point to a win only wager for a level stake that suits the bettor’s budget. Its swings and roundabouts when contemplating an accumulator or system bet.
A £1 win all-correct Canadian for a total stake of £26 including Min pays £2181.20 The same bet with Presenting Percy on the Bet Slip returns £4326.38. The profit goes up 10 times if the stake unit is £10. There is no insurance for one loser but the other selections are combined in 11 permutations; six doubles, four trebles and a four hold. Two losing selections leave three doubles and a treble which cover the total stake more often than not. Three losers leaves the one double which is rarely enough to prevent a loss-making bet. A £26 single pays £8658.00 and £28938.00 respectively.
Presenting Percy has not raced since the Gold Cup. The horse never looked comfortable and ran about one stone below his best. At the time, connections were perplexed but the horse was found to be lame which is a huge handicap in the best chase of the season for ratings. The horse was mightily impressive in winning the RSA Chase at the 2018 festival. His owner is optimistic about a good run at Punchestown. Philip Reynolds said about Presenting Percy in the Racing Post this week:
“He’s in good shape and is ready to start back. The plan is to run him on Sunday. I’m not saying he is going to win but I expect him to run well and give a good account”.
If Presenting Percy beats Min off level weights the Gold Cup dream is on again. The trainer has a small team of horses and the news agenda before the Gold Cup was a David v Goliath story. There is the same scenario on Sunday because Min is trained by Willie Mullins, the multiple winning champion trainer in Ireland. The horse is owned in name by Susannah Ricci but her husband, Rich, pays the bills. He worked for Barclays on Wall Street but has his horses with Mullins in Ireland.
Min is a confirmed runner so tries to win the two miles and four furlongs Grade 1 race for the second year in succession. Mullins looks like running Duc Des Genievres who won the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham in March.
Course and distance Grade 1 winner, Voix Du Reve, is another possible runner for Mullins. Anibale Fly could reappear in the race. The horse finished second in the Gold Cup behind Al Boum Photo and was the fifth in the Grand National.
Min is the horse to beat and if Presenting Percy did that he would be back in the mix for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.