Paisley Park is the top dog in the stayers' hurdle division and looks difficult to depose. The process of defending his title at Cheltenham next March continues in the Marsh Hurdle at Ascot on Saturday. Paisley Park has won six races in a row and there is no reason to oppose the horse, which can be backed at -400 with online bookmakers to win at the Royal racecourse this weekend.
The best odds for Paisley Park are not for the working man, but money buyers could be over the horse for a 25% return on investment. The poor house is full of odds-on backers, but even at such cramped odds, there could be some value in the market. Paisley Park won't be winning by 25 lengths. The smart punter will avoid any market for the horse to win by more than five lengths.
Paisley Park won the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival this year. He was one of the stories of the season because his owner is blind. Andrew Gemmel travels the world attending sports events and does not seem to miss out even though his experience is all audio and no visual. Paisley Park has given him the journey of a lifetime and the good news story should continue this Saturday.
Pundits believe there is nothing in the Marsh Hurdle to beat Paisley Park. The favourite has run to a career-best Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 172. The next best in the betting is The World's End, which has only run to an RPR of 156. Ratings and form are not exact sciences, but the variance equates to over 10 lengths. Only a fall can derail Paisley Park, but the horse has completed all 10 starts over jumps.
There were only six runners left in the race on Tuesday and one or two more could be withdrawn. In any case, the place terms will be one-quarter the odds for the first two even if the six entries go to post. L'Ami Serge could be the each-way value bet based on the best form, as the horse ran to an RPR of 162 at Aintree in April 2018. That form is still not as good as Paisley Park's best efforts, but L'Ami Serge looks a decent bet to finish second.
Paisley Park won his first start this season and this race looks like a penalty kick, but any football fan will tell you that penalties are no guarantee of a sure thing. However, the Marsh Hurdle looks like an open goal and nobody has missed from the spot with the goalkeeper not on the premises. The field has been weakened by the absence of Thistlecrack and If The Cap Fits and the other horses are racing for second place.
Paisley Park does everything right for a race over three miles. He relaxes and jumps well and goes to win the race when the jockey asks the question. If the horse is challenged over the closing stages, there is more in the tank. If he can win the championship hurdle for stayers, the quality of the Marsh Hurdle should not be a problem. The bet is Paisley Park to win by less than five lengths.
The Stayers' Hurdle has a history of producing multiple winners, but not so over the last six years. From 2000 to 2012, 10 of the winners won the race more than once. (There was no race in 2001). The very best staying hurdlers can stay at the top of the pile for a number of years. If nothing emerges over the next three months, Paisley Park can win back-to-back stayers' hurdles.
The horse was one of the most improved hurdlers in training last season. He first produced a mark of 147 at Aintree in October and went up 25 pounds in the handicap over the next six months. He was an average winner of the stayers' hurdle on ratings but had a bit in hand at the end of the race. Paisley Park should win the Marsh Hurdle and can complete the stayers' double at the festival.