The first day of the Cheltenham November meeting has lost out to the weather. Heavy rain has led to a waterlogged track, so racing will not take place on Friday. There is already an inspection planned for Saturday's fixture, meaning the BetVictor Gold Cup is under threat. If racing goes ahead on Sunday, Monsieur Lecoq stands out at +450 with online bookmakers to win the Greatwood Hurdle.
A statement from Cheltenham read: “We have had to abandon racing at Cheltenham on Friday November 15, as the course is flooded in areas as well as waterlogged in places. Ahead of racing on Saturday there will be a further inspection on Friday afternoon at 3pm.”
The weather forecast suggests its odds-against for racing on Saturday but odds-on for Sunday. If racing survives, Monsieur Lecoq ticks most of the boxes for the feature handicap hurdle over two miles and half a furlong. The Greatwood Hurdle is open to horses aged four and older who jump eight obstacles on the Old Course at Cheltenham.
In a competitive ante-post betting market, Monsieur Lecoq is the favourite ahead of Benny's Bridge (+700). There should be a field of more than 16 runners, so bookmakers will offer one quarter the odds for the first four places. However, this is the type of race for which some bookies will settle each way bets on extra places.
The retail betting industry in the UK is facing challenges. There has been a steady stream of betting office closures since the government reduced the maximum stake on fixed odds betting terminals (FOBTs) from £100 to £2. Business has suffered and the sector was already losing out to online betting. The industry has responded with bonuses and concessions, including extra place races.
The Greatwood Hurdle fits the bill as it will attract a big field and is being shown live on terrestrial television. Some bookmakers will offer best odds guarantees on all the races at Cheltenham. If customers take a board price and the starting price is different, bets will be settled at the best odds. Bookies often go non-runner/no bet on the major championship races and lucrative handicaps.
Here are some 10-year betting trends that can help you pinpoint the leading contenders for the Greatwood Hurdle:
• The average starting price of the winners was just over 10/1.
• Starting prices ranged from 6/1 to 20/1.
• There were no winning favourites.
• Six winners started at double-figure odds.
• Five winners were returned at 10/1 to 12/1.
You would not want to dismiss Monsieur Lecoq on the basis of the betting market. The horse ticks some of the other boxes in terms of the recent trends. Each of the last six winners of the Greatwood Hurdle was aged four or five, while five winners since 2009 carried more than 11 stone. Monsieur Lecoq is aged five and carries 11-08 in the Cheltenham race on Sunday. The horse also has the form to deliver.
Monsieur Lecoq was below the highest level as a four-year-old. He did not make the field for the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, the championship race for juveniles. He finished 10th in the consolation race, having unseated the jockey going down to the start. The horse made headway after the last hurdle and stayed on but had too much to do to make the frame.
Monsieur Lecoq progressed to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle last month. That run earned the horse a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 143. Benny's Bridge has achieved a career highest RPR of 137. Quel Destin (+1000) is the third favourite in the betting for the Greatwood Hurdle and has a best RPR of 148, so could that horse could be the fly in the ointment. However, Monsieur Lecoq is the tip to win the race on Sunday, weather permitting.