Definitly Red will carry one stone less than Tiger Roll in the 2020 Grand National, and that weight concession may be too much for the dual winner to overcome.
Grand National weights definitely point to Definitly Red
Definitly Red will carry one stone less than Tiger Roll in the 2020 Grand National, and that weight concession may be too much for the dual winner to overcome. Anibale Fly has been given a chance by the handicapper and is set to carry eight pounds less than the favourite. These horses are the two against the field in the Grand National ante-post betting market. There is a maximum field of 40 runners for the race at Aintree racecourse near Liverpool on April 4.
The Grand National is a handicap, which means horses are allocated a weight based on past form. The objective is to level the playing field and give each horse a chance to win the greatest horse race in the world. Tiger Roll is the top weight with 11-10, while Definitly Red carries 10-10 and Anibale Fly has been allocated 11-02. That’s 164, 150 and 156 pounds for each horse respectively.
Online bookmakers are now offering non-runner/no bet on all races at next week’s Cheltenham Festival. They could offer the same promise for the National, but there have not been any announcements. Definitly Red and Anibale Fly are certain runners pending no injuries or a dramatic change in the going. Both have been given weights that put them well inside the top 40 horses in the handicap.
The National winners since 2000 carried the following weight in stones and pounds, in pounds, and expressed as the number of pounds less than the top weight:
| Year | Weight | Pounds | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 10-12 | 152 | 12 |
| 2001 | 10-11 | 151 | 13 |
| 2002 | 10-04 | 144 | 20 |
| 2003 | 10-07 | 147 | 17 |
| 2004 | 10-10 | 150 | 14 |
| 2005 | 11-01 | 155 | 9 |
| 2006 | 10-08 | 148 | 16 |
| 2007 | 10-06 | 146 | 18 |
| 2008 | 10-09 | 149 | 15 |
| 2009 | 11-00 | 154 | 10 |
| 2010 | 11-00 | 159 | 5 | 2011 | 11-00 | 154 | 10 |
| 2012 | 11-06 | 160 | 4 |
| 2013 | 10-03 | 143 | 21 |
| 2014 | 10-06 | 146 | 18 | 2015 | 11-09 | 163 | 1 |
| 2016 | 10-07 | 147 | 17 |
| 2017 | 10-11 | 151 | 13 |
| 2018 | 10-13 | 153 | 11 |
| 2019 | 11-05 | 159 | 5 |
The weight range of runners in the National is 24 pounds (10-00 to 11-10), so here are some weight-related trends for the last 20 renewals since the start of the century:
• Lowest weight: 10-03 (Auroras Encore in 2013)
• Highest weight: 11-09 (Many Clouds in 2015)
• 11-00 or higher: 7
• Less than 11-00: 13
• Average weight: 151 pounds (10-11)
• Average weight below top weight: 13 pounds
• 10-00 to 10-07: 6
• 10-08 to 11-00: 7
• 11-00 to 11-05: 5
• 11-06 to 11-10: 2
Defintly Red is a leading contender for the 2020 Grand National based on weight allocation, as he carries one pound less than the average for winners of the National over the last 20 years.
The horse is trained by Brian Ellison, who was upbeat about his runner’s chances at Aintree after he won at Kelso last Saturday.
“I think he’ll win the National. I’ve always thought he would,” Ellison told the Racing Post.
“Tiger Roll won’t give us a stone, no chance. He’s a great stayer, he’s on 10-10 and he has everything going for him.”
When a trainer is happy with a horse’s weight in a major race, you can assume he believes the horse is a few pounds in. Definitly Red has been one of the best-backed horses for the National over the last few days and the top price is now +1600 with Bovada in from +2500 last week.
Anibale Fly is above the average for winning weights and below the average for difference from the top weight, but the horse is proven at Cheltenham Gold Cup level and could be another blot on the handicap. He has finished third and second in the 2018 and 2019 Gold Cups and was fifth behind Tiger Roll in the National last April. Anibale Fly was 16-and-a-half lengths adrift of the winner carrying five pounds more. He now has eight pounds in hand, so the horses are closely matched at the weights.