Horses from the UK and Ireland put down a marker over the weekend for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which is the first race of the Cheltenham Festival. Fiddlerontheroof and Envoi Allen were impressive in trials, but the favourite for the Festival opener is still Abacadabras at +400 with online bookmakers.
The loud cheer from racegoers as the tapes go up for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle is a culmination of six months of anticipation. The novice events can be particularly intriguing for betting because at the start of the season the runners are inexperienced and unproven in the discipline. The Supreme is run over two miles and half a furlong on the New Course and there are eight obstacles. Horses aged four and older are eligible to run, but the last winning four-year-old was Hors La Loi in 1999.
Bookmakers increase promotional activity during the Cheltenham Festival to attract new customers. The first race of the Festival is a great opportunity to reach a large and sometimes new audience. Most online bookies offer Best Odds Guaranteed as standard and many will have introduced the non-runner/no bet concession during February. The Supreme Novices' Hurdle is sponsored by Sky Bet, who usually have a decent offer for the race.
In 2019, Sky Bet refunded losing stakes up to £20 for their own Cheltenham race. This offer was a reload bonus for new and existing customers. It was not a no-deposit bonus because customers needed £20 in the account to place the qualifying bet. The offer was heavily promoted in the racing press and mainstream media. The race was won by Klassical Dream at +600 for the Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh combination. Sky Bet did not reveal the cost of the promotion.
There was a wide range of similar offers from other UK bookmakers. The typical amount of the refund or free bet was £20. The objective of the offers was to attract new and existing customers to the Cheltenham Festival service. Online bettors can be quite fickle and will gravitate to the sites with the best bonus offers. Enough floating customers stay loyal to a brand so the offers can be cost effective. The stakes are higher for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle, which has seen some recent betting moves.
There were eye-catching runs from Fiddlerontheroof and Envoi Allen at Sandown and Naas respectively last weekend. However, neither horse has dislodged Abacadabras from favouritism for the first race of the jumps meeting that matters most. The horse was beaten by one-and-a-half lengths by Envoi Allen at Fairyhouse at the start of the December, but the win in the Future Champions Novices' Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas earned Abacadabras a RPR of 150.
Envoi Allen ran to a mark of 152 at Naas last Sunday. The horse jumped well and was pushed clear after the last hurdle to win by three-and-a-half lengths from a novice trained by Mullins. The race was possibly the best novice hurdle in Ireland this season and Irish-trained runners now have a strong hand for the Supreme.
The shortest-priced contender trained in Britain is Fiddlerontheroof, which can be backed at +800 after winning at Sandown on Saturday. The horse is trained by Colin Tizzard, who has now won the Tolworth Hurdle three times in the last four years. The horse stayed on strongly on the run-in to record a six-length win from a decent horse from Ireland. The RPR for the win was 151, which means the top three in the betting for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle are closely matched. Ratings are not an exact science, but best marks and relative odds suggest Fiddlerontheroof is the pick of the market leaders. However, a bigger-priced horse could be the fly in the ointment.
At +2500, Blue Sari has many pounds to find with the three featured horses if he runs in the Supreme. The Mullins-trained horse lost to Envoi Allen by three quarters of a length in the 2019 Festival champion bumper, carrying eight pounds less than the winner. The horse finished 40 lengths behind Abacadabras with a three-pound weight advantage at Leopardstown over Christmas. That form appears to give Blue Sari no chance at Cheltenham, but the trainer and jockey reported the horse was blowing hard. Nevertheless, the ante-post selection for the 2020 Supreme Novices' Hurdle is Fiddlerontheroof.