Could we see a 58,806/1 Dettori acca come in at Newmarket?

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Frankie Dettori went through the card at Ascot in September 1996 and the seven-leg multiple bet paid +2500. The jockey has six rides at Newmarket this Friday and if all his mounts win, the accumulator would return +5800 at the current best odds.

Dettori is a jockey that some punters follow blindly. There were many good news stories about his Magnificent Seven almost 24 years ago and some bookmakers went out of business. The accas gained momentum and the bookies tried to take evasive action.

If Dettori wins on his first three rides at Newmarket, the odds for the fourth horse will be cut. If he rides five winners on the bounce, the odds for the final ride will be slashed. Terebellum is +137.5 to win Frankie’s sixth race, but after five winners the horse could start as an odds-on favourite.

Fujiyama Crest completed the seven-timer in 1996 and could have been backed at +1200 in the morning. Running-up money and bettors jumping on the bandwagon meant the horse was sent off as the +200 favourite. Dettori’s rides at Newmarket could create even bigger liabilities.

At the time of writing, no online bookmakers have issued a market for the number of Dettori winners at the fixture. The win odds for each individual horse suggest the market would be something like this, but this is only a guide:

  • No winners – +800
  • One winner – +300
  • Two winners – +150
  • Three winners – +200
  • Four winners – +3300
  • Five winners – +100000
  • Six winners – +1500000

The odds for six winners in this market would not be the 58,806/1 quoted earlier in this article. Bookmakers apply a related contingencies factor to multi bets, which means each successive winner will affect the odds of the next horse on the ticket. The favourite is two winners and the outsider is obviously a clean sweep for Dettori horses.

According to the early betting markets, Dettori’s best chance of a winner is Terebellum in the final race on the card (16:10 GMT). The Group 1 Falmouth Stakes for fillies aged three and older over one mile looks a good opportunity for the John Gosden-trained favourite.

Terebellum looked like the best horse in the race when finishing second behind Circus Maximus at Royal Ascot. The horse can get some compensation for that result and give Dettori his banker. Terebellum has the joint best Official Rating with Magic Wand. That horse ran last Saturday in the Group 1 Eclipse and racing again so soon at the highest level is a difficult task.

If Terebellum is his nap, Frankie’s second best according to the betting forecasts is Saeqia in the third race (13.15 GMT). No bookie had priced up the race at the time of writing, so we are using tissue prices. However, the actual betting should mirror this market.

The race is a maiden for horses aged two over seven furlongs. Saeqia has the most experience and the best form of the runners that have had a run. The horse should contribute to Dettori’s tally of winners at the meeting. Saeiqa was placed on similar going on his two starts to date.

The Italian jockey rides Grand Bazaar for Gosden in the opener at 12.10 GMT. The horse is the second favourite and the best price is +450. Grand Bazaar has something to find with the favourite, Group One Power, on the ratings, so that could be bad news for the Frankie multiple punters.

His other three rides are at double-figure odds ranging from +1100 to +1400, so they are not total outsiders. However, on the basis of form and ratings, Dettori’s expected number of winners on Friday is two.

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