The highlights of Saturday's racing programme in the UK are Grade 1 chases at Ascot and Haydock. The Christy 1965 Chase and Betfair Chase are races at the highest level, but there are other competitive races as part of the two supporting cards. The Coral Hurdle at Ascot and the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase at Haydock offer decent prizes. Call Me Lord and Midnight Shadow are the respective market leaders that could do favourite backers a big favour.
Altior and Lostintranslation have been tipped for the major races, with the double paying best odds of +500 at online bookmakers. Sadly, the select fields mean it could be win-only betting, so there is no point in trying to identify the each-way value. The outcome of both races should affect betting on championship races at the Cheltenham Festival. The updated odds for the Gold Cup will indicate which horses enhance their reputation on Saturday.
The Coral Hurdle is a Grade 2 race run over two miles, three and a half furlongs and 10 obstacles, and horses aged four and over are eligible. Four of the last five winners were aged six. Former winners in the last decade include Annie Power, Faugheen and Rock On Ruby, all winners of the Champion Hurdle, so the race often produces a winner from the top drawer of hurdling. Siliviniaco Conti won the race in 2010 and that horse won chases at Grade 1 level.
The second favourite in early betting is Roskana, which won the mares' hurdle at the Festival in March. She was second behind If The Cap Fits in the Aintree stayers' hurdle, beaten by a head but receiving seven pounds from the winner. The female horse gets the same allowance at Ascot on Saturday, so the two runners are closely matched on recent form.
However, Roskana has a career-high Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 156 while If The Cap Fits' best figure is 164. The latter can be backed at +300 while his female rival is no bigger than +275 across the board. The bookmakers do not agree with historical RPRs because, on paper and at the weights, If The Cap Fits is more likely to win the Coral Hurdle than Roskana.
The market suggests these horses are racing for second-place prize money behind Call Me Lord. The horse has also run to a RPR of 164, which puts him level with If The Cap Fits on ratings. Call Me Lord produced arguably the best piece of form in the context of the Coral Hurdle, at Sandown at the end of April. The 16-and-six-length winning margin over Lil Rockerfeller and Wholestone makes Call Me Lord a worthy favourite for the Coral Hurdle and our tip to win the race.
Midnight Shadow is the early favourite at +225 to win the Betfair Exchange Graduation Chase at Haydock over two miles, five and a half furlongs. The fences at Haydock take some jumping and they provide a decent test for relatively inexperienced horses. Midnight Shadow receives a seven pounds fillies and mares allowance and that advantage could be crucial. The Sue Smith-trained runner is the right favourite at the weights for the Haydock Class 2 contest.
Midnight Shadow beat Wholestone by more than two lengths off level weight in a hurdle race at Cheltenham in January over two miles and four and a half furlongs. Her chase rating is 11 pounds lower than her hurdles best figure. We are taking it on trust that Midnight Shadow can improve over fences, but any progression in the discipline makes Midnight Shadow hard to beat at Haydock.