Tiger Roll is pivotal to the Grand National ante-post betting market. The horse is as low as +500 with online bookmakers to win the most famous steeplechase in the world for the third year in succession. He takes out 20% of the market, but the owners are hinting that their animal will not run. In that case, there must be some value amongst the less-fancied runners to prevail at Aintree next April.
There are inherent dangers with ante-post betting. If the backed horse is withdrawn, your stakes are lost. The upside is potentially bigger odds than on the day of the race, so the risk of backing a non-runner is offset by better value for money. Bookmakers introduce non-runner/no bet nearer race day, but none are offering that concession for the National over four months in advance of the race.
The Grand National is a handicap, meaning horses are allocated a weight based on past and collateral form. The objective is to give each potential runner the same chance of winning the race. That is commendable in theory, but in practice some horses will be given a manageable weight and others will be weighted out of the contest. As a two-time winner, Tiger Roll is expected to receive a steep penalty when the weights are announced in February.
Tiger Roll is owned by Gigginstown House Stud. The stable belongs to the O'Leary brothers, who are the founders and main shareholders of the budget airline Ryanair. Michael is the front man for the racing operation, while Eddie is the racing manager. Ryanair operates on strict cost control, which allows the airline to offer some of the cheapest flights in the market. Gigginstown is run along the same lines. Sentiment will count for very little when Tiger Roll is discussed.
Michael O'Leary has suggested that Tiger Roll will not run in the National if the handicapper gives the horse too much weight. This could be seen as emotional blackmail on the part of O'Leary because no horse has won three Nationals in a row. Tiger Roll's current mark makes him Cheltenham Gold Cup class, but that is a race that Tiger Roll cannot win. The National weights are usually compressed to give horses at the top of the handicap a genuine chance of being competitive.
The debate may prove to be hypothetical because Tiger Roll is currently sidelined due to injury. The horse will not be racing until February at least, leaving very little time before the first target. Tiger Roll has won the last two cross country races at the Cheltenham Festival and the objective is to win the race again. If the horse's National weight is unacceptable, the owners have talked about retiring it after Cheltenham. That decision opens up the betting for the Grand National.
If Tiger Roll is pulled out of the race, the prices for the other leading contenders will shorten. Bookmakers need to maintain their theoretical profit margin and Tiger Roll accounts for a big chunk of the market. Proven form over the unique fences on the National course at Aintree is a good starting point in identifying some value if Tiger Roll is absent on the big day.
Blaklion stands out at [33/1]. The horse's record in the National could be described as good, bad and ugly. It looked the most likely winner in 2017 but was outstayed by One For Arthur and eventually finished fourth. Blaklion was the favourite 12 months later but did not get beyond the first fence. The horse was bought for a small fortune with the 2018 Grand National in mind, but injury prevented the horse from getting a run. It could be fourth time lucky for the former Grade 1 chase winner.
If Blaklion shows some half-decent form in prep races for the National and Tiger Roll is not given a shot at sporting immortality, Blaklion will be much shorter than +3300. It is not beyond the realms of possibility that bookmakers will be quoting as low as +1600. So if you are in the Blaklion camp, now is the time to back the horse to win the 2020 Grand National.