Goshen, Aspire Tower and Allmankind can be backed at between +400 and +600 to win the Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. The combined price of the three market leaders to win the most prestigious hurdle race for horses aged four is about -125 with Bovada.
However, Pentland Hills won the race at +2000 last season, so there can be upsets in the championship race for juvenile hurdlers. This column's two against the field are one of the three big players and a bigger-priced outsider. The fancied horses are Allmankind and Fujimoto Flyer.
The Triumph Hurdle takes place on the Friday of the Cheltenham Festival and is the first race on the Gold Cup card. It is run on the New Course over two miles and one furlong with eight obstacles. It is the most important race for novice hurdlers and often identifies the four-year-old champion. All runners carry 11-00 except mares, which receive an allowance of seven pounds.
Here are some key betting trends related to the winner of the Triumph Hurdle over the last decade:
• Average price of winner: almost +1000
• Range of prices: +250 to +3300
• Number of favourites: three
• Odds-on winners: none
• Double-figure odds winners: two
The leading trainer over the last 10 years is Nicky Henderson with three wins, while four of the winners in that timeframe were trained in Ireland. Barry Geraghty is the most successful jockey with three wins since 2010. The race is for horses aged four, so there are no multiple winners.
The Racing Post has published some big-race trends which can be summarised as follows: every winner over the last 10 years ran in the previous 55 days; all but one had won at least half their previous hurdle races; and nine finished in the top three last time out, of which six won and only two did not have an adjusted Racing Post Rating of 150 or higher. Only two horses have won the Triumph Hurdle in the last 30 years having contested just one previous hurdle race.
One of the other main trends is the poor record of the winners in the Champion Hurdle the following season when aged five. Since the start of the century, only Katchit completed the double in successive years (2007 and 2008). That means the winner of the Triumph Hurdle since 2000 has won more Grand Nationals than Champion Hurdles. Tiger Roll won the Triumph in 2014 and Champion Chase contender Defi Du Seuil did the same three years later.
Allmankind is seven pounds clear in the Topspeed ratings and two pounds behind the top pick in the Racing Post Ratings, the Irish-trained Aspire Tower. The trainer has been happy with his horse since an impressive win at Chepstow in December. Aspire Tower is three from three over hurdles, which have been won by a combined distance of over 38 lengths. He has produced progressive Racing Post Ratings of 120, 131 and 143 in those races. Allmankind is the main tip at +450 with online bookmakers.
Fujimoto Flyer is trading at +1600 for a race that has place terms of one-fifth the odds for three places. However, the Triumph Hurdle is such a competitive race that there could be concessions and extra places. The second selection gets the mare's allowance, which could be crucial. The horse has winning Grade 2 form in France and the advantage of carrying less weight than the male horses. Fujimoto Flyer is entered for a key trial at Kempton on Saturday. An impressive win could see her odds cut for the Triumph, so you should get on before the weekend.