Paul Nicholls may not have the biggest team for the Cheltenham Festival, but it could be a case of quality over quantity. All the big bullets would have to hit the target for him to land the trainer's title next week at +4900 odds. His banker, Solo, would almost certainly have to win the Triumph Hurdle, while Frodon and Clan Des Obeaux are the other main chances.

Nicholls' successful training career has been built more on Grade 1 winners rather than big numbers. The Cheltenham Festival leading trainer's title, however, is based on wins and not prize money. Nicholls has won the overall trainer's title 11 times, but that is dependent on value and not wins. He has been the leading trainer at the Festival six times but not since 2009.

Here is Nicholls' yearly career record of 45 Cheltenham Festival winners:

1999 – 3
2000 – 0
2001 – 0
2002 – 0
2003 – 1
2004 – 4
2005 – 2
2006 – 3
2007 – 4
2008 – 3
2009 – 5
2010 – 2
2011 – 3
2012 – 2
2013 – 1
2014 – 1
2015 – 3
2016 – 3
2017 – 1
2018 – 2
2019 – 2

The trainer has had at least one winner at the meeting in every year since 2003. He has had at least two wins in all but four years over that spell. Nicholls has produced only a single winner at three Festivals since 2013, but he sent two victors to Cheltenham in 2018 and 2019. His average return over the last 21 years is 2.14 winners at the jumps meeting that matters most.

The breakdown of winners by type of race is as follows:

Hurdle – 19
Chase – 26
Bumper – 0
Cross Country – 0

Nicholls' wins in the four main championship races are:

Champion Hurdle – 2012
Champion Chase – 1999, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2015
Stayers' Hurdle – 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012
Gold Cup – 1999, 2007, 2008, 2009

Nicholls' day-by-day wins since 2005 when the Festival was extended to four days are as follows:

Tuesday – 4
Wednesday – 6
Thursday – 9
Friday – 18

While Nicholls will be sending about 15 horses to Cheltenham, main players such as Willie Mullins, Gordon Elliott and Nicky Henderson have potential squads of up to 50 runners. In fact, the trainer might not have a runner on Tuesday so could be watching the racing at home on television. Solo looks like his best chance of having a winner during the week. Nicholls believes the horse should go “very, very well” in the Triumph Hurdle, while online bookmakers have it as a +300 chance for the win.

Frodon won the Ryanair Chase last season with Bryony Frost in the saddle. The combination will be trying to become only the second multiple winners after Albertas Run (2010 and 2011). Nicholls reported to the Racing Post that “Frodon loves this time of year – he's back to where we want him to be”. The horse has had a difficult season and is yet to find his best form, but the horse should run well in the Ryanair Chase again.

Clan Des Obeaux has won the last two King George VI Chases at Kempton on Boxing Day. The race is the second-most important steeplechase of the season, after the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Nicholls has worked his horse hard, which suits his nature and running style. However, Clan Des Obeaux was fifth in the Gold Cup last season, 11 lengths off the pace behind the winner, Al Boum Photo. Reversing that form looks beyond Clan Des Obeaux, but making the frame is a genuine target.

On recent trends, Nicholls will be in the winner's enclosure with at least one of his horses at this year's Festival. He doesn't have the numbers to beat Mullins, Elliott and Henderson, but Solo and Frodon can make it a successful venture for the trainer.