He agrees that his horse faces a tough task, but Sunshine Coast trainer Billy Healey remains hopeful that Rising Fire can deliver the goods in the AU$135,000 Ladbrokes NT Derby (2050m) in Darwin on Saturday.
It's the feature race on Day 4 of the 2022 Darwin Cup Carnival.
Rising Fire returns to the big stage after finishing second behind the Gary Clarke-trained Wolfburn in the $75,000 Darwin Guineas (1600m) on the opening day of the Cup Carnival on July 2.
It was the Headwater gelding's first Top End start and heading north after campaigning in Queensland was inevitable when he was purchased by a group of part-owners based in Darwin at the 2020 Magic Millions Ready To Race sale at the Gold Coast.
Healey, who once had the opportunity to train the outstanding Alligator Blood, admitted that the plan was to always go back in the Guineas when Rising Fire stepped on to the Fannie Bay dirt for the first time.
The three-year-old gelding, jumping from barrier 11 in the 12 horse field, was at the tail of the field after 400m before turning into the back straight and ended up settling in second last place.
His jockey Paul Shiers, one of the more experienced NT riders, stuck the rails and was looking for gaps – it was also evident that Rising Fire was building momentum approaching the final corner.
Turning for home and with 350m to go the holes appeared up the middle of the track with Rising Fire gobbling up one rival after another before claiming second prize.
Wolfburn, who crossed from barrier 10 to assume the lead after 250m, was never headed before going on to record a truly outstanding four length victory and is it any wonder he is a +140 favourite for the Derby.
After 13 starts in NSW where he was placed on six occasions, Wolfburn finally tasted success when he debuted in a 1200m maiden at Fannie Bay on June 4 before coming fourth over 1600m (0-58) a fortnight later.
Wolfburn had raced from 1600-1870m in NSW, so getting the trip in the Guineas was never going to pose a problem – it's just the manner in which he won the race that left many gasping.
The Snitzel gelding is now in line to become just the third horse to win the Darwin Turf Club's famed Ladbrokes Triple Crown – a $100,000 prize awarded to the connections of the horse that can win the Darwin Guineas, NT Derby and $200,000 Darwin Cup (2050m) on August 1.
Only two horses have achieved the feat – Brinney (1989) and Ventilago (1996) – with the $100,000 bonus introduced in 1995.
Like a majority of the starters in the Derby, Wolfburn has yet to negotiate 2050m and so there has to be a question mark – but the ease of victory in the Guineas proves that you dismiss his prospects at your peril.
Rising Fire arrived in Darwin after finishing fourth over 1600m (Class 1) at Eagle Farm on May 4 before going down narrowly over 2000m (Class 3) at the Sunshine Coast Polytrack on May 15.
So he was always going to be a threat in the Guineas and Healy wasn't too disappointed.
“It was a good run, he obviously drew a tricky gate that day,” Healy said on Friday.
“He probably didn't get a lot of luck, he was nice and strong late.
“From someone looking from the outside in it was definitely a great Derby trial.”
As fate would have it, Rising Fire (+340) will once again jump from gate 11 in the 12 horse Derby field and as you would imagine Healy has mixed feelings.
For the record, Wolfburn was allocated barrier nine.
“When I originally thought about the Derby, I wasn't too worried about the barriers,” Healey said.
“Then Monday, I was thinking that I would like to see him draw the middle of the pack – sort of inside eight.
“The wider draw has probably been a little bit of a negative.
“It's quite a big field, it's a lot bigger field than what I probably expected.
“It's not a huge hindrance, but at the same time you've got the favourite that will be up there in the first three.
“We're going to probably spot him a fair bit, so that's always a negative in our court.
“Any horse who gets back and runs on they always need luck, he'll definitely need it come tomorrow.”
The positive aspect for Healey is that Rising Fire – who he described as a really relaxed horse – has at least got runs on the scoreboard when it comes to running 2000m, so the 2050m should not be an issue.
“Yeah, I've got no queries on him at the trip, I've been quite happy with him – he's probably improved again since last time he ran at 2000m,” he said.
“He can sit just about anywhere and go to sleep, so I think going to the 2050m is a big plus going into tomorrow.
“There's probably a good half of that field there tomorrow that won't run the trip – being one of the ones that will, it's always a positive.”
Healey argued that a race such as the Derby was open and that it was anyone's race, but that Wolfurn was clearly the one to beat.
The next best according to the market are Starlite Valley (+500) and Zoomurudi (+900) – third and fourth in the Guineas – Max Fire (+1500), Sirocco Gale (+1600) and Marvelous Night (+1600).
“I think Wolfburn is the main one obviously, it's a $2.50 favourite,” he said.
“You're not really going to say that there's a lot of others to beat.
“It's a big field, which leaves us in a difficult position where we go back, Wolfburn goes front – we're going to have a lot of slow and tired horses in front of us from the half mile onwards.
“Anyhow, he'll have to deal with that.
“He should be right there in the thick of it at the end of it and we've got the right man on board for the job.”
That person Healey speaks of is Shiers, who has an extraordinary Darwin Guineas and NT Derby record.
He has won the Guineas nine times and the Derby on seven occasions.
And he did finish second on Rising Fire in this Guineas a fortnight ago.
In regards to the Derby, Shiers was victorious aboard Poet's Landing (2019) over 2000m and Budget King (2020) over 1600m during Covid before finishing second last year on Casino Seventeen behind Sanblas when the race was increased to 2050m.