There are two valuable races on the All-Weather at Lingfield on Saturday including the Winter Derby. However, the most significant action will be over the jumps at Kempton where some of the races could provide pointers for the Cheltenham Festival.
There are three hurdle races on the card that could have an impact on betting markets for the meeting in March but the Pendil Novices' Chase provides the nap of the day in Commanche Red.
Bangkok and Good Effort are the respective favourites for the Winter Derby and Hever Sprint Stakes at Lingfield. On form and ratings, both horses have something in hand over the rest of the field. Bangkok was considered good enough to run in the turf Derby at Epsom while Good Effort has won his last two starts in Britain on artificial surfaces.
The double pays over +350 with William Hill. The form is generally reliable on the sand at Lingfield so this looks a decent bet.
The Betway Handicap Chase is the richest race at Kempton. Its looks an open contest with 14 horses declared to run and bookmakers offering one quarter the odds for the places. The three miles will take some getting on good to soft ground which could become just soft with overnight rain. The race has had various title sponsors but it has always attracted a decent field of experienced chasers. Adrien Du Pont is a course and distance winner and this could be the target for the season. The horse is +500 for favourite backers with Ladbrokes.
There are four Grade 2 races and one Grade 3 race at Kempton so it's a mini Festival day. On ratings the highest quality race is the Kingwell Hurdle. It's a Class 1 Grade 2 race for horses aged four and older. The race distance is two miles and there are eight obstacles. Song For Someone is a progressive hurdler who produced an impressive effort over a longer distance at Ascot at the start of the month. The horse can show the improvement to prevail at +300 with bet365.
There are also two Grade 2 novices' hurdle races on the Kempton card. Solo can justify favouritism in the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle while Son of Camas looks a good bet to win the Dovecote Novices' Hurdle. An impressive winner of either race would become market movers for the equivalent races at the Festival. There is also the potential for an unexposed horse to put down a marker for Cheltenham by out-running the price. Night Edition could be that horse in the Adonis race.
Commanche Red is the headline tip in the Pendil Novices' Chase at Kempton over two miles, four furlongs and 110 yards. The horse showed decent form in bumpers and hurdle races and has transferred that level of ability to chasing. Commanche Red had a clear-cut win over the course and distance in a novice's handicap chase in December. He now runs at a higher level in a graded race but has the ratings to win the contest at +250 with Coral.
Away from Kempton, the Eider Chase at Newcastle over four miles and half a furlong on heavy and soft in places ground will be a gruelling race. The fixture is subject to an 8am precautionary inspection and the overnight weather forecast suggests it is wind more than rain that could force the meeting to be abandoned.
If the fixture goes ahead Petite Power is the selection at +500 with Paddy Power. The horse has won two handicap chases and being placed in two more and should relish the extreme distance and the demanding underfoot conditions.
The Cheltenham Festival begins two weeks on Tuesday so the racing this weekend is the last chance for potential runners to have prep races over a reasonable timeframe. The odds are that a horse running in Britain this Saturday will win a race at the upcoming meeting that matters most. If Commanche Red delivers in style, the horse gets right in the mix for one of the Festival novice chases and could be the runner who wins on Saturday and at Cheltenham in the second week in March.