The introduction of the non-runner/no bet concession has led to an outbreak of ante-post betting on the 2020 Cheltenham Festival. It's less than two weeks before the biggest betting meeting of the season and bookmakers are building up some significant liabilities. Ladbrokes report that Samcro and Goshen are currently their biggest losers. However, the most damage could be done by punters on the second day when three of the potential bankers are due to run.
A table of the 20 highest-turnover races in the UK is published at the end of the year. The Grand National is head and shoulders above any other race in terms of bets and stakes, as the race attracts thousands of once-a-year punters who don't bet on any other race. The other 19 races in the standings often include 10 or more Cheltenham Festival contests. In fact, the four main championship races all generate more betting turnover than the Derby, the most important Flat race of the season.
The Festival is arguably the best horse racing occasion in the world. It brings together the best horses trained in the UK and Ireland in championship races and competitive handicaps. The setting in the Cotswolds provides a perfect arena for four wonderful days of sport. It's a battle between the bookies and punters, and there is often a pivotal day and the potential for a multiple of favourites that create a nice accumulator.
That was certainly the case in 2015, when Willie Mullins sent over four good things from Ireland for the first day of the Cheltenham Festival. Douvan (+200), Un De Sceaux (-149.99) and Faugheen (-125) won their races and Annie Power was sent off the -200 favourite in the mares' hurdle. The accumulator at starting prices paid over +1200, but there were also many ante-post bets at much bigger odds. Annie Power looked all over the winner but fell at the final hurdle. Apparently, that fall saved bookmakers about £50 million.
The equivalent multiple this year brings together three of the shortest-priced favourites of the meeting on the Wednesday. Envoi Allen (Ballymore Novices' Hurdle), Tiger Roll (Cross Country Chase) and Appreciate It (Champion Bumper) come together for a +1400 treble. The three horses are all Irish-trained and a representative of Irish bookmaker Boylesports expressed his concern in the Racing Post.
“Wednesday has got the potential to be a shocker of a day for the bookies. We'll be running scared if Envoi Allen gets the Irish off to a flyer in the first,” said the spokesman.
These multiples have become part of Cheltenham folklore and the bookies often get out of jail when one of the selections lets down the punters. Favourites have a good record on the second day of the Festival; in 2018 and 2019, seven market leaders obliged in 14 races. Punters win when favourites win and bookies win when favourites don't. It's a simple equation and Envoi Allen, Tiger Roll and Appreciate It are the most likely winners of their respective races.
Ladbrokes also fear a punter's benefit on the second day of the Festival. However, the firm are more concerned about Samcro and Goshen scoring for the backers. They are their top liabilities, but the next three horses on the danger list are Appreciate It, Envoi Allen and Tiger Roll. Gordon Elliott trains three of those five horses, so bookies will be praying that the Irish trainer has a poor Festival.
Goshen was +3300 for the Triumph Hurdle in November but is now a +350 chance. Samcro was supported for the Marsh Novices' Chase last year and reached a low of +350 but has gone out to +800. The nightmare scenario for racing bookmakers is a huge winning fivefold at over +60000. No doubt they will get one result that saves their bacon, just as they did with Annie Power five years ago.