Min and Riders Onthe Storm can fly in Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham

The ground for the third day of the Cheltenham Festival will have a bearing on the result of the Ryanair Chase. If it comes up soft on March 12, Frodon will have a great chance of being the first back-to-back winner since Albertas Run in 2010 and 2011. However, if the word ‘good’ is in the going description, Min and Riders Onthe Storm may be too quick for the 2019 winner. Running plans have not been confirmed for some of the fancied horses.

The Ryanair Chase is the championship Grade 1 chase at the intermediate distance. It is run over two miles and four-and-a-half furlongs. Some horses have been declared for the Ryanair Chase and one of the two other championship races for experienced horses over fences, the Champion Chase and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Horses aged five carry 11-09, older horses carry 11-10 and mares get an allowance of seven pounds.

Paul Nicholls has declared four horses at the latest entry stage and Frodon is the only definite runner. His regular jockey is Bryony Frost, who became the first woman to ride a Grade 1 winner over obstacles at the Cheltenham Festival with the victory on Frodon last year. Cyrname runs at Ascot on Saturday and might not go to Cheltenham, while Dynamite Dollars and Politologue are entered in the Champion Chase.

Bristol De Mai from the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable runs in the Gold Cup. The trainer has a decent second string with Riders Onthe Storm.

Here are some key 10-year winner trends that were highlighted in the Racing Post’s Ryanair Chase ante-post betting preview this week:

• 10 had a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 170 or higher.
• 10 had a RPR within six pounds of the winner.
• Nine with no more than four runs since last October.
• Eight course winners.
• Seven with no more than 11 runs over fences.

Those trends are pretty varied and several horse tick all the boxes. Min fits in with the trends more than Riders Onthe Storm, but the latter is less experienced over fences. Min has won eight chases from 15 starts and accumulated more than £700,000 in total prize money. Riders Onthe Storm has contested seven chases, winning three and collecting £117,016 in prize money.

As the winner of the race last season, Frodon is proven over the course and distance. The horse stayed on after the last and is hard to pass on soft ground. However, you would expect Min to be too fast for Frodon on good ground. On Racing Post Ratings (RPRs), Min has the wood on the 2019 winner. Min’s best chase RPR is 180, while Frodon ran to a mark of 173 in the Ryanair Chase last season.

Min won a Grade 1 chase at Punchestown in December on soft ground but runs better on good. He is +350 for the Ryanair Chase with Bovada. A Plus Tard is the current favourite at a best price of +275.

Riders Onthe Storm takes on Cyrname in the Ascot Chase on Saturday and then all roads lead to Cheltenham. In his last five runs he has produced RPRs of 120, 135, 142, 154 and 169. If that progression continues, Riders Onthe Storm could beat Cyrname off level weights as the latter’s highest mark is 181. Riders Onthe Storm is +800 for the Ryanair Chase but could become the favourite if he accounts for Cyrname at Ascot. However, Min would still be the nap for the 2020 Ryanair Chase.