Ipswich Cup analysis, odds and free tips

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Pornichet

Where: Ipswich
When: Saturday, June 13, 12:07pm AEST

THE Brisbane Winter Carnival heads to Ipswich where the $177,000 Ipswich Cup and $176,000 Eye Liner take centre stage.

The Cup gives horses that weren’t good enough to compete at the top level at Doomben a chance to get some of the great prize money on offer.

A field of 13 runners have assembled where the Chris Waller-trained Danchai is the current $4.60 favourite with bookmakers.

Race 6 – Ipswich Cup (2150m)

The Chris Waller-trained Danchai didn’t start its career in Australia very well, but its third placing last time out was encouraging. The six-year-old is a winner at this distance and down in the weights at 54kg is ideal with Luke Tarrant in the saddle. It is warming nicely to this and after opening at $4.80 its odds have trimmed into $4.60.

Baligari is a four-win gelding for trainer Lloyd Kennewell which ran nicely for second in the Group 3 Premier’s Cup last start at Doomben. The four-year-old is having its first start on this track, but it is well weighted at 54kg and it has been well received in the market at $6 after opening at $8.

Darci Be Good is a well-tried gelding which has won seven from 46 with 13 placings. It wasn’t far behind Frespanol last time out at Doomben and that form should stack up well for this. It won nicely three starts back at Sunshine Coast, beating only a four-horse field, but consider as its most recent runs have been solid. $6 chance with bookmakers.

Recommended bet: Danchai to win ($4.60) at Sportsbet.com.au

Race 7 – Eye Liner Stakes (1350m)

Smokin’ Joey’s form line isn’t anything to get excited about, but it ran on well against much tougher opposition last start. The Wez Hunter-trained gelding finished eighth in the Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap and it is dropping right back in grade for this. The seven-year-old has always been a better left-handed horse, but respect at this level at $4.50 in the betting.

Ulmann has been respected in the betting for in-form trainer Peter Moody. The three-year-old gets in well on the weights at 54kg and the experienced Michael Cahill is engaged to ride. It was last seen running second behind Winx in the Sunshine Coast Guineas which is great form for this. Winx has since won again and it faces an out-of-form field so look for it to be running home strongly. $5.50 into $5.

Nite Rocker is looking to rebound after a disappointing last place finish at Doomben. The four-year-old was left three-wide most of the way and was unable to get any momentum during the race. Its form prior included a third placing in the BRC Sprint behind Charlie Boy which should be a good form guide for this. It opened at $5 and has been bet into $4.80.

Recommended bet: Ulmann to win ($5) at CrownBet.com.au

Race 3 – Sirromet Bundamba Plate 2YO (1100m)

Wicked Intent drops back from the Group 2 Sires’ Produce where it finished 12th of 15 runners. The Chris Munce-trained colt looked much better its start prior where it finished second behind Blueberry Hill and that’s the best form guide for this race. It is unbeaten at this distance with two wins and only the big weight should stop it. The punters elect at $2.60.

Embrace The Pain is a Gonski gelding which is unbeaten in two race day starts. The Christopher Maxwell-trained runner from Rockhampton won its debut by 8.75 lengths and it didn’t let up last start when winning by two lengths. This is an obvious rise in class, but it has been well backed at $5.50 so keep an eye on the market for any further movement.

Real Good was real good when winning at Sunshine Coast, but it failed to impress last start. The Trevor Miller-trained gelding gets the inside draw which is a big help and Cahill takes the ride. At its best, it has the ability to win races at this level so include in multiple bets at $6.

Recommended bet: Wicked Intent to win ($2.60) at WilliamHill.com.au

Race 8 – Gai Waterhouse Classic (1350m)

Real Surreal is bred to enjoy wet ground, but its form on dry tracks has been impressive. After a few average runs in Melbourne, the Kelso Wood-trained mare returned to Queensland with a fourth in the Listed Bright Shadow and it was running home very strongly. It has placed once at this distance and another win shouldn’t be far off. Its opening price of $5 is now into $4.60.

Champagne Cath has been well supported at $4.80. The Chris Waller runner doesn’t win out of turn, but it has shown good speed in the past and this is its preferred distance. Expect the daughter of Street Sense to go forward from the wide draw and be tough to beat with only 54kg on its back.

Discreet has come in a point to $12 after opening at $13. The Kelly Schweida-trained mare has placed on this track and it has won twice at this distance. It didn’t quite get everything go its way last time out at Doomben, but expect a better effort here and the value is there.

Recommended bet: Discreet to place ($3.80) at Sportsbet.com.au

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