Is Vauban a vulnerable Melbourne Cup favourite?

The Willie Mullins-trained Vauban has been the long-standing favourite for the 2023 Melbourne Cup, and while most may think he’s deserving of that tag, we’re going to make a case to bet against him in Tuesday‘s Flemington feature.

There’s no doubting the son of Galiway brings strong staying credentials to the race that stops the nation, boasting a victory in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes (2414m) at Naas on August 7.

Vauban scored by 1.5 lengths on that occasion, and you can tie that form into Valiant King, who finished runner-up in the Ballyroon, managing only a mid-field finish in the 2023 Caulfield Cup (2400m).

That isn’t exactly a glowing tick of approval in terms of the form stacking up here in Australia, as the likes of Without A Fight, Gold Trip, and Right You Are beat Valiant King rather convincingly.

Another reason to consider laying the Melbourne Cup favourite is the more obvious one.

You simply never know how international horses are going to settle in Australian conditions, and regardless of how good they have looked in trackwork, we’ve seen a number of highly regarded overseas gallopers melt in the yard on race-day.

History is against Vauban in that regard, as international favourites have a horrible record in the Melbourne Cup.

You only need to look at last year’s race, where the James Ferguson-trained Deauville Legend started at +350 with Melbourne Cup betting sites and could only manage a fourth-place finish.

Mer De Glace (2020), Marmelo (2017), and Fame Game (2015) are just some of the international favourites in recent years to go under, all missing the placings entirely.

The market is even starting to adjust now, with Vauban’s stablemate Absurde gaining plenty of support at around the +1100 mark.

Could this be shades of the 2006 Melbourne Cup, when Delta Blues famously saluted for Japan after Pop Rock started as favourite with online bookmakers?

If you’re keen to lay the market elect, the only place to do that is Betfair.

Betfair gives punters the option to either ‘back’ or ‘lay’ a horse, meaning if you’re like us and believe Vauban is a strong chance of missing the top three, hop on the exchange and bet against the 2023 Melbourne Cup favourite.