2025 Melbourne Cup First 4 betting strategy & tips

Melbourne Cup First Four 2025 betting guide with best exotics tips, fixed odds, value roughies and staking plans to maximize returns on Tuesday at Flemington.

by Ky Pitstock

9 months ago 0

Chasing the Melbourne Cup First Four is the holy grail for exotics punters—and nothing spikes the heart rate (or the payout) quite like landing all four across the line. RacingOnline.com presents our 2025 Melbourne Cup First Four tips for Tuesday, November 4, at Flemington.

The 2024 Melbourne Cup first four paid $728,015.70 on the local tote, with Knight’s Choice ($126), Warp Speed ($31), Okita Soushi ($12) and Zardozi ($11) filling the first four.

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Our on-top selection for the 2025 Melbourne Cup is Presage Nocturne (6). A genuine two-miler with proper wet-track action, he brings deep staying credentials from Europe and a rock-solid local platform. His Caulfield Cup run rated right up to this, and with any give in the Flemington surface he finds a couple of lengths. If they turn this into a true staying test from the clock tower, his stamina should separate him late.

Presage Nocturne

(Barrier 9)

Weight: 55.5kg Form: 71x4x13x34 Trainer: Alessandro Botti Jockey: Stephane Pasquier

Age: 6YO
Colour: Grey
Sex: Horse
Sire: Wootton Bassett (GB)
Dam: Kyurem (IRE)

Presage Nocturne 2025 Melbourne Cup Betting Odds

Win:+700 Place:+220

Best odds at Interbet

The Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours (14) is the yardstick this spring—tactical speed to land, a turn of foot when it counts, and a profile that screams two miles. If he holds his level off that last peak, he’s the one they have to beat. If he dips even a touch, his class should still anchor any exotic.

Half Yours

(Barrier 8)

Weight: 53kg Form: x211215141 Trainer: Tony & Calvin McEvoy Jockey: Jamie Melham

Age: 5YO
Colour: Chestnut
Sex: Gelding
Sire: St Jean (IRE)
Dam: La Gazelle

Half Yours 2025 Melbourne Cup Betting Odds

Win:+550 Place:+170

Best odds at 888

Absurde (9) is your Euro closer. He owns the right engine and can slice into the frame if the pressure is genuine. Maps to settle midfield with cover and launch—exactly the profile that finds big in Cup fields and spikes First Four dividends.

Parchment Party (18) is the progressive stayer. Each step up in trip has unlocked another gear and he profiles like the improver of the race. He doesn’t need to win to be invaluable—he’s the value injector that turns good tickets into great ones.

Parchment Party

(Barrier 3)

Weight: 52kg Form: 5x59231x1x Trainer: William Mott Jockey: John Velazquez

Age: 5YO
Colour: Bay
Sex: Horse
Sire: Constitution (USA)
Dam: Life Well Lived (USA)

Parchment Party 2025 Melbourne Cup Betting Odds

Win:+5000 Place:+1100

Best odds at Stake

Smokin’ Romans (12) is the pattern play. Forgive his last start, vet issues were a clear excuse and rate him on his best on-speed efforts. If the rail is the place to be and leaders are sticking, he’s the honest grinder who can cling to the top of the field and blow the dividend out.